Quote:
Originally Posted by m_memmory
However Microsoft have the clout, the money and the brand name that can (eventually) be of some competition to Apple. Yes I agree that it will probably mean the end of the smaller companies being in the market (again in the US and Europe) and leave behind only the 2 main companies but they will actively be in competition with each other and might actually force each other to innovate. In that regard the competition will actually be wider.
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If Apple is stagnating, then isn't this the perfect time for others (even small companies) to innovate and quickly make in roads? It's a fallacy the iPod is only about advertising, but even if true, Sony's always had the brand name and clout. Creative just got $100 million infusion to do with what they will. Even this poll is interpreted as iPod users aren't loyal and would switch if something better came along. So it's much more anyones game than people realize. That's the big difference in the occasional comparison between Apple DAP dominance and Microsofts OS dominance. Apple iPod growth was natural, still has much competition (so not a monopoly), and its lead could disappear quite quickly (remember Rio and Creative both held the top spots earlier).
Seriously would some of you sacrifice Creative, iRiver, Sony, etc. (at least in the States and Europe as you mentioned) just for better iPods? That's what it sounds like from the comments. Sacrifice the market for better products by Apple cause they're too lapse with their big share (and by implication, I guess, the whole market can't continue until they do - though that I don't understand). But when do two competitors ever create more innovation then six or ten long term? Film studios? Auto manufactures? Newspapers? I can't think of a single example except maybe when grouping gigantic funding is necessary. Space programs? Maybe, but seriously with Creatives "gift," Sonys might, and Samsung and SanDisks electronics connections, do you really think money and clout is what's standing in the way of innovation?
You've already indicated your (and many here) favorite manufacture, Rio, left the market due to not being able to compete with Apples margins. What was good about that? Did Creative and Apple suddenly innovate more? And MS has much deeper pockets than Apple. Apple didn't take a loss on the 1G iPod. MS could (though reports differ, they may not) take losses for years like on the XBox. How are these makers going to compete on that bottom line (which like Rio has little to do with innovation and in fact, when in trouble, R&D is often stripped first)?
And remember the PlaysForSure program was an integral part of many of these manufactures leverage against Apple and iTunes. If that was as good as MS stated, why did they have to effectively replaced it with a Zune only alternative (and if there are improvements why not incorporate it with PlaysForSure and the stores that support it)? Again this will hurt others far more than Apple.
I swear the worst possible scenario would be a battle between two heavy weights splitting the market down the center. Think of regional soda before Coke and Pepsi went head to head. Any room for those other competitors on the self now? Are four Mountain Dews innovation? You think Apple advertising is bad now? Just wait. Exclusive deals with retailers? Required end cap displays? It could get very ugly and about things far outside DAP innovation.
I'd rather take a few years of slow progress than a possible limit on innovation long term. Who knows where DAPs will go, but as a market it's still in its infancy. Now is not the time to make big mistakes.
That all said it's not that I think MS shouldn't be able to release a DAP. I just fear the ramifications for this market.