[JeremyR]

   
The PS3 was $599 at launch.  The PS2 was $399 if I remember right.  So the launch prices aren't much different this generation than any previous one.  There will be price drops as soon as demand gets lower than supply, possibly this year.
 
I think the downfall of consoles is not eminent.  It will probably go at least one more generation.
 
Mobile games move a lot of copies, but don't make much money.  Rovio, the makers of Angry Birds, is about a $150 million a year company.  Nintendo is about a $9 billion a year company.  Sony and Microsoft are hard to measure because they make way more than games.  But there is no mobile game ever released that has made enough money to support AAA development budgets.
 
That could change someday, but as long as people expect to pay $1 per game (or free with advertising), mobile won't be the platform for AAA games.

 
At CES Nvidia announced the Tegra K1. While this mobile phone chip is as fast as a 360 or PS3, most significantly, it's the same architecture as the GForce cards. So it runs everything the 780 runs, just slower. It has 192 CUDA cores, runs the latest unreal engine (something the 360 and ps3 can't), is 64 bit, and will be out this year.
 
This is a huge advancement in mobile gaming. For the first time, AAA developers can scale the exact same game to a mobile platform.
 
If this is out this year, imagine where we will be at in 7 years. With the speed mobile hardware is going, and the fact that the console market is being squeezed  by both directions (Steam Machines coming down from PC gaming, and Mobile hardware coming up from handheld gaming), I really do think consoles as we know them, has reached the last generation.
 
We will find out in 7 years.

 

[conquerator2]

At CES Nvidia announced the Tegra K1. While this mobile phone chip is as fast as a 360 or PS3, most significantly, it's the same architecture as the GForce cards. So it runs everything the 780 runs, just slower. It has 192 CUDA cores, runs the latest unreal engine (something the 360 and ps3 can't), is 64 bit, and will be out this year.

This is a huge advancement in mobile gaming. For the first time, AAA developers can scale the exact same game to a mobile platform.

If this is out this year, imagine where we will be at in 7 years. With the speed mobile hardware is going, and the fact that the console market is being squeezed  by both directions (Steam Machines coming down from PC gaming, and Mobile hardware coming up from handheld gaming), I really do think consoles as we know them, has reached the last generation.

We will find out in 7 years.

Gaming with a phone just won't feel the same as using a real console

 

[JeremyR]

Gaming with a phone just won't feel the same as using a real console

 
Who said gaming with a phone? Just wirelessly connect your phone to the TV, and pick up a controller and play. In fact by 7 years from now, I expect the 4th or 5th version of this CPU to just be in the TV.
 
Lots can and will change in 7 years. 7 years ago, we didn't have iPhone. Think what's changed between when the 360 and PS3 came out, and today.

 

[conquerator2]

Who said gaming with a phone? Just wirelessly connect your phone to the TV, and pick up a controller and play. In fact by 7 years from now, I expect the 4th or 5th version of this CPU to just be in the TV.

Lots can and will change in 7 years. 7 years ago, we didn't have iPhone. Think what's changed between when the 360 and PS3 came out, and today.

I still don't have an Iphone and I'll try to avoid having one for as long as possible as I don't really like Apple anything...

 

[barleyguy]

   
Who said gaming with a phone? Just wirelessly connect your phone to the TV, and pick up a controller and play. In fact by 7 years from now, I expect the 4th or 5th version of this CPU to just be in the TV.
 
Lots can and will change in 7 years. 7 years ago, we didn't have iPhone. Think what's changed between when the 360 and PS3 came out, and today.

 
I actually watched the NVidia K1 presentation live on Twitch, and have been following it for a few months.  I also think that competitors will step up to the plate and tablets (and phones up to thermal limits) will have console class graphics capabilities.
 
I still don't think that will significantly degrade the console market this generation though.  The reason is economic, not technical.  As an example, GTA 5 did about a billion dollars in sales, at $60.00 a copy.  Let's suppose Rockstar games ported it to a tablet, and posted it on Google Play for $60 a copy...
 
The site would fill with one star reviews, with people stating "$60 is too much for tablet game, you evil bastards."  or somesuch.  And there's no market incentive to sell it much cheaper, because they sell boatloads of them on consoles at the current pricepoint.
 
Also, the way that Sony and Microsoft make their money is by taking a royalty of each game sold, in exchange for promoting the platform, and also quality control (quality control was the original excuse, though it could be argued that need doesn't get met in some cases).  Also, one of the benefits consoles provide is a standardized hardware platform that developers can optimize for.  (The Apple ecosystem provides to a certain extent as well though.)
 
But outside all the technical reasons, the business model doesn't YET make sense.  Nobody will pay $50-60 for mobile games.
 
I think what we'll see is AAA games launching first on consoles, then eventually being ported to mobile, maybe a year or so behind. (EDIT: Maybe less than a year.  The average for DVD releases of movies is 105 days.)  The console versions will be the "premium" experience.  The tablet versions will be cheaper, will have slightly worse graphics (because of thermal limits and lack of optimization targets), and won't be as heavily promoted.
 
Think of the movie theater->DVD->Pay TV->Network TV model.  Movies come out in theaters first, then on disk (and pay per view), then on Pay TV and Netflix, then on free TV.  The movie makers get to monetize things multiple times.  And though movie theaters are way less popular than they were even 10 years ago, they've still managed to survive.  I think consoles will be the same way.  There will be at least one more generation, and the consoles will become the "premium" platform out of many different options.
 
$.02. (My two cents)

 

[thatBeatsguy]

   
I actually watched the NVidia K1 presentation live on Twitch, and have been following it for a few months.  I also think that competitors will step up to the plate and tablets (and phones up to thermal limits) will have console class graphics capabilities.
 
I still don't think that will significantly degrade the console market this generation though.  The reason is economic, not technical.  As an example, GTA 5 did about a billion dollars in sales, at $60.00 a copy.  Let's suppose Rockstar games ported it to a tablet, and posted it on Google Play for $60 a copy...
 
The site would fill with one star reviews, with people stating "$60 is too much for tablet game, you evil bastards."  or somesuch.  And there's no market incentive to sell it much cheaper, because they sell boatloads of them on consoles at the current pricepoint.
 
Also, the way that Sony and Microsoft make their money is by taking a royalty of each game sold, in exchange for promoting the platform, and also quality control (quality control was the original excuse, though it could be argued that need doesn't get met in some cases).  Also, one of the benefits consoles provide is a standardized hardware platform that developers can optimize for.  (The Apple ecosystem provides to a certain extent as well though.)
 
But outside all the technical reasons, the business model doesn't YET make sense.  Nobody will pay $50-60 for mobile games.
 
I think what we'll see is AAA games launching first on consoles, then eventually being ported to mobile, maybe a year or so behind. (EDIT: Maybe less than a year.  The average for DVD releases of movies is 105 days.)  The console versions will be the "premium" experience.  The tablet versions will be cheaper, will have slightly worse graphics (because of thermal limits and lack of optimization targets), and won't be as heavily promoted.
 
Think of the movie theater->DVD->Pay TV->Network TV model.  Movies come out in theaters first, then on disk (and pay per view), then on Pay TV and Netflix, then on free TV.  The movie makers get to monetize things multiple times.  And though movie theaters are way less popular than they were even 10 years ago, they've still managed to survive.  I think consoles will be the same way.  There will be at least one more generation, and the consoles will become the "premium" platform out of many different options.
 
$.02. (My two cents)

You make a great point, and I am a loss for words. Bravo!

 

[daleb]

I still don't have an Iphone and I'll try to avoid having one for as long as possible as I don't really like Apple anything...

Well of course, that is why you get an android. So much more useful.

 

[brunk]

I think consoles will eventually be a thing of the past. The time will come where you can just 'rent' the processing power from the cloud, and stream directly to your TV. Corporations will love it because it has the potential to be considered as a 'utility bill' to many, copyrights will be bullet-proof. People will love it because gone is the physical, aging media and hardware, if you want to upgrade then you just pay a fee and the effect is instant.
 
IMO

 

[conquerator2]

Well of course, that is why you get an android. So much more useful.

Well not like there is much choice. Windows mobile is poor.

 

[JeremyR]

 
Well of course, that is why you get an android. So much more useful.

 
And thank Apple for it. When Apple came out with a sheet of glass phone with no buttons, everyone thought they were crazy (including me). Now it's what we think a phone should be.
 
What we think living room gaming should be next Gen, I think will change.

 

[JeremyR]

   
I actually watched the NVidia K1 presentation live on Twitch, and have been following it for a few months.  I also think that competitors will step up to the plate and tablets (and phones up to thermal limits) will have console class graphics capabilities.
 
I still don't think that will significantly degrade the console market this generation though.  The reason is economic, not technical.  As an example, GTA 5 did about a billion dollars in sales, at $60.00 a copy.  Let's suppose Rockstar games ported it to a tablet, and posted it on Google Play for $60 a copy...
 
The site would fill with one star reviews, with people stating "$60 is too much for tablet game, you evil bastards."  or somesuch.  And there's no market incentive to sell it much cheaper, because they sell boatloads of them on consoles at the current pricepoint.
 
Also, the way that Sony and Microsoft make their money is by taking a royalty of each game sold, in exchange for promoting the platform, and also quality control (quality control was the original excuse, though it could be argued that need doesn't get met in some cases).  Also, one of the benefits consoles provide is a standardized hardware platform that developers can optimize for.  (The Apple ecosystem provides to a certain extent as well though.)
 
But outside all the technical reasons, the business model doesn't YET make sense.  Nobody will pay $50-60 for mobile games.
 
I think what we'll see is AAA games launching first on consoles, then eventually being ported to mobile, maybe a year or so behind. (EDIT: Maybe less than a year.  The average for DVD releases of movies is 105 days.)  The console versions will be the "premium" experience.  The tablet versions will be cheaper, will have slightly worse graphics (because of thermal limits and lack of optimization targets), and won't be as heavily promoted.
 
Think of the movie theater->DVD->Pay TV->Network TV model.  Movies come out in theaters first, then on disk (and pay per view), then on Pay TV and Netflix, then on free TV.  The movie makers get to monetize things multiple times.  And though movie theaters are way less popular than they were even 10 years ago, they've still managed to survive.  I think consoles will be the same way.  There will be at least one more generation, and the consoles will become the "premium" platform out of many different options.
 
$.02. (My two cents)

 
You're thinking of gaming in 7 years within today ecosystem.
 
how about this: What if Rockstar sold you a license to play GTA8, and with that license, you could play it on anything? Your phone, your PC, your TV. Would you buy it? I would.
 
No one is going to try and sell a mobile phone game as we know them for $60. However the thought of selling mobile phone games at all when the PS3 came out was laughable. 
 
Nvidia will change the market. Sony Now, and service like it, will change the market. Valve will change the market.
 
It's just speculation, but I think the market that the PS5 and XBox Two enters, will be a very different place then it is today.

 

[kyuuketsuki]

Well not like there is much choice. Windows mobile is poor.

 
I disagree. I actually like how Windows Phones function. Their ecosystem is terrible though. They have the same problem as BlackBerry has and WebOS had... Getting developer support. Honestly, if Windows got better developer support I'd have jumped ship from Android, because I really liked the feel of the Nokia 1020. And the live tiles actually work a bit better at times than the android app widgets. But saying it is poor is not correct, the actual OS is great, apps and app support is not. 
 

   
And thank Apple for it. When Apple came out with a sheet of glass phone with no buttons, everyone thought they were crazy (including me). Now it's what we think a phone should be.
 
What we think living room gaming should be next Gen, I think will change.

 
Technically Windows did it first, and other manufacturers as well. Apple took the idea and made it highly marketable and pretty. Android followed suit in design ideas and built around that making it unique. 
 
But I agree this could start a trend. Good ideas usually spiral off. And as much as I hate to admit it, Apple took the idea of a touch interface mobile OS, prettied it up, and made it more usable for the consumer was a brilliant move that did in fact change the mobile phone industry. Making capacitive touch screens standard was just practically genius because people were using resistive with their fingers anyway most of the time (despite them not being first, but when are they ever? They are more akin to trendsetters than innovators).

 

[conquerator2]

I disagree. I actually like how Windows Phones function. Their ecosystem is terrible though. They have the same problem as BlackBerry has and WebOS had... Getting developer support. Honestly, if Windows got better developer support I'd have jumped ship from Android, because I really liked the feel of the Nokia 1020. And the live tiles actually work a bit better at times than the android app widgets. But saying it is poor is not correct, the actual OS is great, apps and app support is not. 


Technically Windows did it first, and other manufacturers as well. Apple took the idea and made it highly marketable and pretty. Android followed suit in design ideas and built around that making it unique. 

But I agree this could start a trend. Good ideas usually spiral off. And as much as I hate to admit it, Apple took the idea of a touch interface mobile OS, prettied it up, and made it more usable for the consumer was a brilliant move that did in fact change the mobile phone industry. Making capacitive touch screens standard was just practically genius because people were using resistive with their fingers anyway most of the time (despite them not being first, but when are they ever? They are more akin to trendsetters than innovators).

I don't really fancy the interface but you're right, it is functional.
But I did mean poor as in poor support for apps.

 

[JeremyR]

   
 (despite them not being first, but when are they ever? They are more akin to trendsetters than innovators).

 
Well, this is not a thread about Apple (and NeXT), so I won't go to much into it, but outside of Xerox PARC, they have innovated more than any other tech company in the world.
 
Fun fact, the way we are communicating (HTML), is a spin off of the NeXT OS (what is now OS X) markup language in its text editor. When Tim Berners-Lee invented the WWW at CERN, he did it on a NeXT machine, and just borrowed the markup language it already had.

 

[barleyguy]

Quote:

   
  how about this: What if Rockstar sold you a license to play GTA8, and with that license, you could play it on anything? Your phone, your PC, your TV. Would you buy it? I would.
 

 
Maybe, but I'm not sure they have any financial incentive to do that.  They would probably rather sell it to you once on console, then sell it to you again on your phone a few months later.  I could see the equivalent of the "BluRay/DVD/Digital Copy" packs though, where you buy the console disk in a box and it comes with a download code for the Android version.
 
Quote:

  Nvidia will change the market. Sony Now, and service like it, will change the market. Valve will change the market.
 
 

 
The Tegra K1 may or may not be successful.  It depends whether they get design wins with device manufacturers.  It doesn't contain an LTE modem, so it's crippled from a phone market perspective.  NVidia will build a reference tablet (and a Shield) with it, and a couple of other manufacturers may jump on board.  I think the way it (and its sequels) will change the market is by raising the bar on what people expect from mobile graphics, but only a certain subset of the market even cares about graphics on their mobile games.
 
Sony has a vested interest in getting game royalties from third parties, and over half their sales are still physical.  30% of games are traded back in and sold used, so that part of the market isn't going away anytime soon.  That is why they were so public about supporting used games.
 
The SteamBox will be another choice for consoles, but non-tech users won't understand what it is or why they want it, and it probably won't be available in the glass case at WalMart.  Plus it has online DRM, which is considered an anti-feature by many people.  Valve gets away with it way more than Microsoft was able to, because Steam has lots of loyal users, and they've built that loyalty through good customer service.  But I'll be surprised if it even gets 10% market share if you count it as a console.  Steam boxes might be outsold by the Wii U this generation.
 
7 years is a long time in tech, so there will be things that change.  But also consider that there are less than a dozen AAA game publishers.  So I tend to see the video game market a lot like Hollywood.  They'll do what's in their financial best interest, and they may even adopt common business models driven from the top (Sony and Microsoft).  If there is a disruptive force on that market, I haven't seen it yet.