[imported_Echo_]

blu ray more durable

 

[imported_Echo_]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cire its too early to tell, but from whats seen so far, HD-dvd looks like the winner due to being backwards compatable using the same laser. being able to use current DVD producing equipment to make HD is a huge plus, as well. blu-ray is for the sony and DRM whores HD-DVD is for the practical, realistic people

do you think hd dvd is going not to have any drm on it?

and both of these are for only the tech poeple right now since the average joe doesnt know either and will get what the boy in the best buy uniform tells them is better

 

[Kirosia]

hd-dvd, it's cheaper. But blue ray does have a cool name . . .

 

[tkam]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabe Logan Blu ray also had the majority of movie studios behind it.

Thats the real key to this, as of now Blu-ray has far more content provider support. But whether either of them will be able to displace dvd in the near future is a pretty big question.

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

Both support 1080P and Dolby TrueHD. So really, the only mass-market factor will be the studios supported.

Right now I'm undecided. HD-DVD doesn't have the titles I want yet, and its 1st gen player is glitchy. Blue*Ray has announced titles I want (Robocop and Conan The Barbarian), but it all depends on the transfer quality (Robocop has had poor PQ issues on DVD), and audio codecs: rumor has it Sony won't support lossless, but I guess I can afford to wait a month to know for sure.

 

[Duggeh]

Films will be released on both formats, double format players will be released and ultimately, itll run into the same sort of stalemate that SACD and DVD-A have, but on a larger scale. If the 2 were so fundamentally different that it isnt possible to have a double format player (read: Betamax, VHS, Super8, Video2000, Laserdisc) then there would be a true format war, which would be won by the more convenient and less expensive tech, or whichever is the first to have a home recording option.

Universal players lead to stalemate, universal players will be made = This will be a slow war.

Theres also the issue over if most people really want to upgrade from DVD to a new format. The upgrade from VHS to DVD was taken by most people because DVD didnt look like moving sandpaper AND was a more convenient format to actually use. If most poeple are happy with their DVD quality, especially since so few poeple own HDTV or projector setups compared to how many own dvd players, then uptake in general is going to be slow.

I see nothing but losers in this tech war, whatever the results.

 

[seeberg]

Quote:

Originally Posted by trains are bad PS3 is going to give it a huge kick. I will have a PS3...I don't want to buy another player.

Yeah, it's for this reason more than any that I'm pretty much already decided- I may not buy a PS3 on initial launch because of my increasing breadth of game titles on other systems (Sega Saturn, PS1, PS2, emulation etc.), but I will buy one by the time some of the major titles reach stateside. Besides Gran Turismo 5, MGS4: Guns Of The Patriots, there has already been an announcement for Final Fantasy XIII, and I imagine after the first year of release it will be be the best time to purchase, unless a price drop is somewhere further down the horizon.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duggeh Films will be released on both formats, double format players will be released and ultimately, itll run into the same sort of stalemate that SACD and DVD-A have, but on a larger scale. If the 2 were so fundamentally different that it isnt possible to have a double format player (read: Betamax, VHS, Super8, Video2000, Laserdisc) then there would be a true format war, which would be won by the more convenient and less expensive tech, or whichever is the first to have a home recording option. Universal players lead to stalemate, universal players will be made = This will be a slow war. Theres also the issue over if most people really want to upgrade from DVD to a new format. The upgrade from VHS to DVD was taken by most people because DVD didnt look like moving sandpaper AND was a more convenient format to actually use. If most poeple are happy with their DVD quality, especially since so few poeple own HDTV or projector setups compared to how many own dvd players, then uptake in general is going to be slow. I see nothing but losers in this tech war, whatever the results.

I'd say I have to agree with your statement. And to home record on either disc would be insanely awesome. One BD-R could back up my entire PC, or my entire music collection in dual layer/dual sided form

BTW, what the hell is up with SACD and DVD-A these days?

,
Abe

 

[ken36]

I hate competing technologies. I bought a betamax in 1978. Still smarting. Let the wars begin.

 

[Riordan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Welly Wu I vote DVD-Video will win the war between HD-DVD and Sony Blue-Ray for the next five years.

seconded.

blu-ray doesn't stand a chance because it lacks compatibility with dvd-video. and hd-dvd will fail as well because of the competing format (one and the same company controlling both hard- and software is quite an obstacle...)

it's sacd vs. dvd-audio all over again.

 

[lmilhan]

Both.

As for me, I am pretty certain that I will end up owning both. HD-DVD for Movies, Blu-ray for my PC (storage capability).

Here is my prediction for the mass market though:

I believe that the HD-DVD will be the format widely accepted by the general public for movie playback. There are a few reasons why I say this:

1) HD-DVD was first to the US market, and from what I understand, they all sold out (please someone correct me if I am wrong).

2) HD-DVD is a name 'joe 6-pack' can understand. As silly as it may seem to us, I think this will play a big factor in the general public accepting HD-DVD. The average joe already knows what a DVD is, and it is simple for them to understand that adding the prefix 'HD' in front of 'DVD' means that it is a High Definition DVD player. Ask your average soccer mom, or joe 6-pack what Blu Ray is, and observe the puzzled look you get.

3) Sony had the potential to make Blu Ray the format to beat, but they really dropped the ball at E3. Their price point is way too high for the average Joe. I think they lost a lot of loyal Sony fans due to this. If they don't get their heads out of their asses, they are going to get buried by Nintendo and XBOX 360 in the home game console market.

4) XBOX 360 has announced an HD-DVD add on. And as we know, they too were first to market with their 'next-gen' gaming console.

5) By the time stand alone Blu Ray movie players come out, HD-DVD players will be WAY cheaper than what Blu Ray players will cost at time of launch. HD-DVD players will already be established by then. Along with their attractive price point (versus Blu Ray) the avergae consumer given the choice will make the no brainer decision and pick HD-DVD.

I do believe there will be a market for Blu Ray in the PC world. The storage capability is very attractive to a computer geek. Of corse, the price will have to come waaaay down, and the media will have to be somewhat affordable. All of this may get flushed right down the toilet in the event that some darkhorse company comes out with a larger/better/cheaper storage alternative. Time will tell.


In summary:

- HD-DVD first to market gives it the edge.
- HD-DVD units sold out, indicating this is already a demand for them.
- 'HD-DVD' is easy to understand for the average joe.
- HD-DVD add on device for XBOX 360 available.
- Sony dropped the ball at E3.

If Sony isn't careful (and history is any indication of what is to come) Blu Ray will go the way of the buffalo (UMD, MD, Betamax, etc...). I can already hear the nails being driven into the Blu Ray coffin.

Ultimately though, whichever format is cheapest will win, that is the way the mass market seems to work. Soccer mom, and average joe will almost always go for the most economical option.

This thread is cool, because it documents my predictions. That way I can come back later on and see how right (or wrong) I am/was.

Time will tell...


But hey, what do I know? I can't even chew through a three-foot rope.

Forgot to mention, I think it will be upwards of 4 or 5 years before we see the public widely accepting a new format over regualr old DVD. And by then, who knows some other company might swoop in with an even better and cheaper solution and bury both HD-DVD and Blu Ray.

 

[milhouse6]

Whoever has the most liberal DRM and/or whoever's DRM is first cracked has got my bet.

Why the studios can't just develop product placement as their primary revenue stream and do away with piracy concerns altogether is beyond me. But nooooo, that's supplemental revenue! Cake/eat/too!

 

[Canman]

Americans love to watch movies. As the cost of HD monitors fall, there will be a proliferation of new owners who want to replicate the tmovie heater experience in their own homes.

There is a big difference here between high definition video formats and high definition audio formats. The home theater movement has much more widespread market appeal than the audiophile stereo contingent. Since the audiophiles are too small of a market niche to support one new format such as DVD-Audio or SACD, let alone competing formats, both formats bombed.

The difference between HD-video and HD-audio formats will be the way HD-Video will be pushed to market. Hollywood recognizes the threat of the home theater experience to thier film revenues and want to cash in on this new trend. In their search for increased revenue, they will push the new formats to the distribution channels such as corporate home theater stores like Tweeter and Best Buy and through video rental stores.

Americans are much more willing to spend on TV/home theater than a good stereo system. Therefore the average Joe is much more likely to have a high definition TV than a good stereo. There will be a difference between DVD Video and HD-video on a high definition monitor. Even if the average Joe can not tell a difference between DVD and HD-video on his $2,000 HD plasma screen, he will want it because it is supposed to be the best.

I think HD-Video will reach much better market acceptance than HD-Audio; however, a competing format war will delay market acceptance for years and years. Eventually one will win.

 

[Welly Wu]

The Apple video iPod will win the war between HD-DVD and SONY Blue-Ray.

 

[Welly Wu]

The total cost of ownership for a high definition home theater system will be too much for most Americans especially those who have to build one from scratch. Free compressed video downloads burned onto cheap blank DVD +/- R/RW/RAM discs and played back on cheap upconverting 720p or 1080i/p standard definition DVD-Video players will make it even harder for HD-DVD and SONY Blue-Ray to succeed.

 

[felixkrull6]

I might be wrong but won't most people be pretty angry when they realize that all those LCDs and Plasmas that they bought with 720p can't display true HD quality?

If they are going to change might as well go with the format that is the more radical, so I vote Blu Ray although there is no way I'm going to get either machine until the initial blood bath is over and a true victor is declared. I learned my lesson buying a laserdisc player although it wasn't so much a format war as it was a new technology not catching on.

Personally I agree with the people who aren't so sure that either will catch on unless they just stop making DVDs. Videos to DVDs was a qualitative leap in terms of both physical and electronic storage, as well as the picture quality. DVDs to the next step is more quantitative in my opinion. In the end, who knows...people who try and predict the future are invariably wrong.