And so the US of A enters the Great Depression of 2008?
Apr 4, 2008 at 11:29 PM Post #31 of 83
Quote:

Originally Posted by markl /img/forum/go_quote.gif
No more trillion dollar wars put on ye olde credit carde.


x2. A fraction of that amount spent on energy research would have yielded significantly more value for future generations.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 1:22 AM Post #32 of 83
Quote:

Originally Posted by markl /img/forum/go_quote.gif
"We have nothing to fear, but fear itself".

We are not headed for anything like the Great Depression; however, one thing is certain-- the more we hype the economic downturn, the more we fret about it, the more we over-react by reducing spending, the worse it will be. 50% of economics is psychology. We need to get a grip. The USA isn't going anywhere, the world (oil producers, our major trading partners like China and India) will bail us out, but we will continue to lose control over over "our" financial institutions and go deeper into debt.



So the solution is denial. Sunshine and fluffy bunnies for everyone! Hallelujah we're saved! Think happy thoughts and everything will be fine.

Denial is what's kept the US economy running for the last 8 years or so. Denial does not solve problems, it only puts them off and makes them worse. Reality will soon intrude on our happy make-believe dreamworld. Reality says the banks are all insolvent and around $140 billion in the hole. Reality says the homes which Americans used to draw HELOC funds to buy cars, plasma TVs and pay creditcard bills are overpriced by up to 300%. Reality says a price correction is happening, and it won't be over until homes are down to around 3 times yearly household income. Reality says that the correction is going to skull**** the financial industry and every American who's bought a home within the past few years. Reality says you're out of the cheap oil & energy you've used for the last century to fuel your growth and power. Reality is that US power & influence is on the decline. Reality says we're in for the biggest cluster**** in our lifetimes. Reality is a bitch and she's about to kick down the door.

You can plan and prepare for it or you can bury your head in the sand and get arseraped. Your choice. Just don't cry to me when your retirement funds and 401k's are wiped out.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 3:50 AM Post #33 of 83
Pure fear-mongering. The media is surprisingly good at that these days.

If we spent half the time trying to come up with real solutions as we do freaking out about how bad it's going to become, things wouldn't be this bad.

I'm glad I never bought into the credit thing. I hate credit cards and I hate trying to live outside my means. It's walking a tightrope above a pit of poisoned spikes.

Glad I have no children to care for, no real debt, and that my company is hiring new employees by the truckload. (I work for Gannett; news media does brisk business when all news is bad news it seems.)

Especially glad I live within walking distance of almost everything I need; therefore I don't need a car burning expensive fuel or paying exorbitant insurance premiums. I have been kicking around buying a motorcycle though.

Edit: It's especially nice to look at the poopoo hitting the fan and not really caring since I have very little to lose.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 3:55 AM Post #35 of 83
totally agree grawk. People are just making it out to be worse than it really is. Give it a couple of months, by this time next year we'll be on the up and up again. Everyone has their ups and downs.

Hell, I'm making more money than ever now
biggrin.gif
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 4:46 AM Post #36 of 83
Because GM and Dell shutting down their factories and putting around 32,000 workers out of jobs is a good thing. Because 3 airlines (Aloha, ATA, Skybus) going bankrupt within the past week indicates economic growth. Because the banks projecting 200,000 layoffs in the financial sector will boost our economy. Because record high oil, energy, and food prices will add to your economic power. Because American having a negative savings rate will turn the economy around.

Feel free to ignore all the market fundamentals, all of which point towards a deep recession or even a depression. Everything will be fine by the end of the year thanks to the Invisible Hand of the free market. There is no crisis, consume away.

So why is there now a government proposal for using public funds to demolish newly built, partially completed, and foreclosed homes in order to "put a floor" under housing prices (which are the root cause of this whole mess) by destroying supply? If the economy is going to turn around on its own just fine, then why would the government need to entertain such drastic measures? Why has the Federal Reserve Bank handed out around $400 billion in loans to financial institutions along with cutting interest rates in half? Why all the drastic actions, some of which have not been used since the Great Depression if we're just having a minor economic hiccup? Oh, and why is the FDIC on a hiring spree for its Resolutions and Receiverships division? Wonder what they know that the public is not being told.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 5:14 AM Post #37 of 83
The way I see it is that the American economy is constantly in band-aid mode, and it does everything to patch up problems so that all is smooth sailing. All of the bumps in the road that should have been felt are somehow "fixed" and put on our tab so to speak. People in charge of economic forecasts and policymaking are so obsessed with making all look well, and they always look for the short term fix. Unfortunately, these fixes are adding up. We are in incredible debt and deficit, our dollar is very low, and foreign countries keep bailing us out by investing in us or lending us money directly or indirectly. One of these days, it WILL catch up to us, and because of globalization, it will hurt all of the power players not just us.

I personally think, in the grand scheme of things, we are worse off than most will be willing to admit, but not to the extremes some are saying... not yet at least. Then again, nobody thinks long term anymore. Biofuels, what a joke... seriously.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 5:17 AM Post #38 of 83
It's time for a good war, not one of these "to help those we're invading" wars. I think we should take western canada. Then we get the oil shale.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 5:28 AM Post #39 of 83
Quote:

Originally Posted by grawk /img/forum/go_quote.gif
It's time for a good war, not one of these "to help those we're invading" wars. I think we should take western canada. Then we get the oil shale.


If only we could harness the power of hot wind blowing in congress, we would not need any stinkin' coal...

Moderator: "Objection.."
Me: "Withdrawn, your honor..."
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 9:23 AM Post #40 of 83
The Daily Reckoning has wonderful insights into how far this can go. And also: It's not even into proper recession territory yet, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is higher than it was at the peak of the 90ies IT bubble. We have far to go.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 2:24 PM Post #41 of 83
Quote:

Originally Posted by roadtonowhere08 /img/forum/go_quote.gif
Biofuels, what a joke... seriously.


Based on my experience as a ChemE who's worked in corn-based fermentation, this analysis is spot on, even though it's written by a market tout:

Cellulosic Electricity: Stock Analysts v. Venture Capitalists | Alternative Energy Stocks

I still would like to see a better analysis made of algal-based biodiesel, which has the potential for much greater yield of energy per acre that could tip the balance in favor of larger investments.

But that article makes it clear that we simply cannot generate the amount of biomass to sustain our current energy consumption per capita in terms of liquid fuels for personal transportation, or to generate more power for electric vehicles.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 3:02 PM Post #42 of 83
Quote:

Originally Posted by grawk /img/forum/go_quote.gif
It's time for a good war, not one of these "to help those we're invading" wars. I think we should take western canada. Then we get the oil shale.


Since Mexico has such a desire to better economic conditions that they flood into the US.......... Draft them and take over Mexico. j/k
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 3:58 PM Post #43 of 83
What would we gain from that? The point of a war is to get more, not get more obligation. That's the problem with all the wars the us has been involved in.
 
Apr 5, 2008 at 4:34 PM Post #45 of 83
Quote:

Originally Posted by grawk /img/forum/go_quote.gif
What would we gain from that? The point of a war is to get more, not get more obligation. That's the problem with all the wars the us has been involved in.


Resources.

Ever vacation on the gulf around Tulum? You walk on the ocean sand and methane comes up. The whole gulf region has petroleum waiting to be developed.

In another matter, I have two in-laws that have been told to deliver their last loads this weekend, bring the truck back to terminal and look for a job. The owner plans to let the creditor take the trucks. How much can the economy bare until foreclosures in many business occur? This may be a plan to turn electronic value into hard assets. Small business bye-bye. Money barrons profit. Thing is, who will they profit from when there is nothing left to buy with?

Interesting read on another hypothisis: Daryl Bradford Smith
 

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