[TheMarchingMule]

USA 2008: The Great Depression - Americas, World - The Independent

I always said I wanted to go back in time and experience how people lived back then, but certainly not back to this period of time!

 

[shigzeo]

well that freaks me out. if you guys fall - no question, the world falls, maybe worse than the big one of the 1930's. this time we haven't a big war to pull us all together this time. better start searching for an enemy

ill look under my bed first...

 

[TheMarchingMule]

Quote:

Originally Posted by shigzeo /img/forum/go_quote.gif well that freaks me out. if you guys fall - no question, the world falls, maybe worse than the big one of the 1930's. this time we haven't a big war to pull us all together this time. better start searching for an enemy ill look under my bed first...

I think these days we don't have to look very far.

But I don't want this thread to deviate so far that the mods have to pull the plug on this thread. I think this is a valid and increasingly worrisome topic to discuss about.

 

[shigzeo]

yes you are right. about both! we are experiencing a big price hike here in japan too with unraised wages that have some people right out mad. i don't know what to make of it all, not having a car to worry about means that i don't have as many expenses but some people are really biting their leathers on this. let's hope not - i think the world is in somewhat less stable a place as the last time a big depression hit the united states. i would hate things to go out of hand.

i hope you guys get back on track as really, that is the best boon to everyone

 

[FallenAngel]

Yep, US is screwed, glad to be Canadian visiting US!

 

[Lazarus Short]

I had been thinking that "depression" was the elephant in the living room, and that no one was allowed to say the word. The very fact that it is being mentioned openly bodes ill...

Laz

 

[shigzeo]

if the states drops to depression, canada will be drug in so fast. canada does not have a strong enough economy especially when so much depends on usa to survive a 'big elephant'.

trust me mate, when the usa fell before, it was felt around the world

 

[wanderman]

zomg it april first this must be a joke >.>. The us economy is as strong as an ox.

/me prays that it is a joke.

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

With the FDIC in place we can't get nearly as bad as 75 years ago.

 

[SR-71Panorama]

The really scary thing is how volatile the stocks are right now.

But I think we'll plow through all this eventually....**crosses fingers + hopes for the best**.....

 

[sejarzo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by wanderman /img/forum/go_quote.gif zomg it april first this must be a joke >.>. The us economy is as strong as an ox. /me prays that it is a joke.

Not a joke, that article is for real. And the US economy is increasingly a house of cards......

Diverting so much of the corn crop to fuel ethanol has created a big problem with US grain supplies that has spread worldwide and is impacting food prices everywere. So many farmers shifted acreage from soybeans and wheat to corn last year that prices on beans and wheat shot up.....so farmers are planning to plant less corn this year to take advantage of that.....and more ethanol plants are opening.....so corn will go even higher as supplies tighten. Most of the big players are stopping projects that are partially completed.

When most of those plants were conceived in 2005 and 2006, corn was $1.85 per bushel, and the firms figured that it couldn't go above $2.25 per bu for long. As of yesterday, the price for May deliveries was $5.86 per bu!

With the mandate to use more ethanol in gasoline, the only way this will work out is for the US population to accept much higher food and fuel costs. And more folks on food stamps, regrettably.

 

[nfusion770]

Most of what I read implies that we will get over this, but I have to admit, I am an economics novice with a bias toward optimism, therefore I tend to assign more credence to optimistic sources.

Anyway I'd be interested to know-

50,000 jobs lost- is that net or does that number fail to include jobs created?
The way I understand it, 5% unemployment is widely considered within the healthy range for the US.
It seems to be widely accepted that inflation is an obvious result of the feds recent actions but the theory is to ignore inflation, in the short term, until some degree of stability is restored.

(as stated above- energy policy affects inflation too, but I was trying to avoid the political)

Anyway, like I said, not being an expert, I am a little confused- just trying to comprehend the the validity of the "depression" claim

 

[marvin]

We're not in a recession yet, so why exactly is the term depression being bandied about?

And really, the last doom and gloom recession cycle was in 2001 with the rapid decompression of the dot com boom. $5 trillion in market value got wiped out in that cycle. We survived that just fine.

As for energy policy, that's a self inflicted wound. If we'd get off of our duffs and pursue energy independence through coal gassification, shale oil, and nuclear power, we wouldn't even be talking about this.

 

[nysulli]

I wouldn't go as far to say that we're entering a depression, more a recession due to the expanding global demand on fossil fuels and food supplies.

for the next few years I think we'll see crop prices fluctuate widely as the ethanol fuel supply and demand is sorted out

on top of that, many families have been over spending the last number of years, credit has really run rampant, and we're dealing with the backlash now, along with the sudden hit in what I would call "assumed wealth" from property values. as housing costs come back to reality, sure tons of people are getting screwed, but on the flip side, many people that previously could not afford a house now can, we'll have to see how that tradeoff works out, and helps with the sales of new home related buying.

In my opinion, the biggest problem though has been the drastic increase in luxury items that people assume they need. a cell phone is not a necessity, nether are cable, high speed internet, video game consoles, or a car with all the latest electronic gadgets. I have actually watched a family that could not consistently put food on the table for their daughter go out and buy her a Wii. We seem to have an obsession with seeing how the rich and famous live their lives, and assume that everyone should have a piece of that lifestyle.

my other bitch is seeing people leech off the system while refusing to take a job they consider beneath them, seems like almost every fast food joint around me has some form of hiring sign up, yet all these people without jobs can't swallow their pride and work a job they normally wouldn't, after all isn't a crappy job better then no job at all?

 

[scompton]

Quote:

Originally Posted by sejarzo /img/forum/go_quote.gif When most of those plants were conceived in 2005 and 2006, corn was $1.85 per bushel, and the firms figured that it couldn't go above $2.25 per bu for long. As of yesterday, the price for May deliveries was $5.86 per bu! With the mandate to use more ethanol in gasoline, the only way this will work out is for the US population to accept much higher food and fuel costs. And more folks on food stamps, regrettably.

Hopefully, as the price goes up, they'll switch to something else like perennial switch grass, which is supposed to be a lot more efficient than corn anyway. With corn, they only use the kernels. With switch grass, they can use the whole plant. At least, I've read this somewhere. I'm far from an expert.