[UglyJoe]

@Roy Jones:

I don't know. I expect the HF-2 sales to be in the 650-700 range, and no more than 1000. For one thing, TTVJ isn't going to want that kind of timeframe on this can. My suspicion is again that Todd isn't making much, if any, profit off of these cans, and he has a lot of other things on his plate than to deal with a custom headphone go-between-guy over the next 6 months. I'd agree with others that have guessed the final cutoff date being late September, early October. Even if 1500 get made, with the reputation that this phone seems to be garnering, there are going to be a lot of members down the line looking to purchase them. Remember, the final number isn't what's going to bring up the price of the can... it's the number of people who aren't happy with them. Suppose 1000 get sold, and suppose that the positive trend stays the same as now, roughly 80-85%. People that are happy with the can are going to be loathe to let them go, even to upgrade to something different/better. The high likelihood of never getting another one would keep them from selling. So let's give a rough estimate of 1000 cans, of which 200 or so are sold. Most of those buyers are also going to be happy with the can, and after a couple of rounds of used sales, we are probably only talking about 20-40 headphones on a FS pool at any given time in the next 4 years. I think this is a rather large over-estimation, and would actually expect to see more like 10 on the market at a normal time. This # of available cans and the potentially high demand for them could easily lead to a large mark-up in price.

Now, this assumes that A.) the headphones are as "good" to a larger population as they are in the smaller sample that is out there now and B.) there aren't a bunch of jackasses who are buying them just to resell them. If there are 500 buyers who are actually interested and want the phones, and 500 more that are using them as a portfolio booster with the intent of jacking up the price and reselling them, then appreciation might stay on the downside for a long time, although I think eventually scarcity will drive the market on them up.

All I know is I have no intention of selling mine when I finally get them unless I really don't like them. In which case I'll probably have them recabled by APS and try them for a longer period of time before giving up on them. I don't think this is going to be the case, though.

EDIT: Another thing to think about is that this really might be last "special edition" phone for head-fi that Grado makes. I can't see them following their current trend... a next step up ($900-$1000 can) would compete directly with the GS1000 and PS-1000. I don't see this happening. Call me cynical, but the market for those expensive flagships is small... they don't want to cut into it with a can that is by all accounts not a money-maker (at least not as MUCH of a money-maker) for them. Maybe they go the other way and throw out some different design than the hybrid cups of the HF-1 and 2, maybe they drop the price on an HF-3 back to $200-$250 and use something else that's been rattling around in John's head but doesn't fit into the Grado line-up, but I don't expect to see another $400+ HF can from Grado, if we see any other HF can out there at all.

Also, I don't see why John would have a problem with the HF-2's appreciating at a ridiculous rate. Suppose something unworldy happens and the cans start going used for $1000-$1200. What is that to him. If anything it would make him proud I think, and raise that Grado mystique. People would always be talking about the mythical and rare HF-2, which is never a bad thing for a company. Just imagine, 5 years from now, a product coming out from Grado with a tag line "the closest thing in the current line-up approaching the sound signature of the rare and prized limited edition HF-2 headphone, produced back in 2009." That would sell a lot of that headphone for Grado. I don't understand why John would be upset if people really begin to covet this headphone a few years down the road.

 

[roy_jones]

UglyJoe

You might be right- it's very hard to predict.

There are so many factors at work. A lot depends on how the headphone is perceived critically, as you said. If a consensus builds that it is better than the RS-1, then there is potential headroom for appreciation on a quality basis.

With the HF-1, part of it's appeal was that it performed above it's original price, but perhaps even more significant was that there wasn't another Grado that was voiced in quite the same way. There were people that don't generally like the Grado house sound that liked the HF-1. Specifically, Grado's are known for having 'hot' treble.

The HF-1 retained much of the positive sound signature that Grado's are uniquely known for, but tamed down the treble and added a slight mid-bass hump that is pleasant and gives the cans a groovy flavor that is lacking in it's competitors (SR225, 325i).

So I could see the HF-2 appreciating significantly if it were to capture a similar niche. It's quite possible that it will, based on some of the early accounts.

Most of my skepticism comes from more purely economic forces. For example, what stopped the HF-1's from appreciating to $1000?

One of the reasons I think they settled where they did is because the RS-1 is available on the used market for $500. The RS-2 is an ugly duckling in the Grado lineup and the HF-1 probably performs somewhere in the same range. If you get passed the price of a used RS-2, you run up against a natural price barrier as a result of the superiority of the RS-1. Despite what some people here have said, the RS-1 is a technically superior headphone.

Now, if the HF-2 is a significantly better headphone than the RS-1, it's possible price plateau is more open ended because it doesn't naturally run up against a competitor that performs better at a given price. The GS-1000 is an exceptional headphone in the Grado lineup. It doesn't really offer that type of comparative option.

What's very interesting, on some level, is that I've read some early reviews that have suggested that the HF-2 is in some ways better than the PS-1000. So if you're looking at an optimistic scenario for price appreciation with the HF-2, certainly that is a good sign.

Personally, I think John Grado is sensitive to this, and with the experience of what happened with the HF-1, I suspect he would be hesitant to create a limited edition headphone that could potentially disrupt his retail sale model. He doesn't capture any of the increased price that the headphones attain on the used market. I think you may underestimate how important it would be in JG's eyes to avoid distorting the value of his existing lineup.

 

[SemiAudiophile]

i don't think the motive was to make huge amounts of profit with the HF-2. like the HF-1, the HF-2 was created as a special headphone to support the head-fi community. if an HF-3 ever comes out, i suspect it would be the last because i can't see how you could take it any further either.

i can see the HF-2 selling from $700-900, between the RS1 and GS1000. slightly better than RS1's but not quite as good as GS1000. that's how much i would sell a "baby PS1000".

 

[dan1son]

Well I was around when the HF-1 was released, bought a pair, and have held onto them tightly ever since. To me, the reason the price went up so drastically was simply because so many people heard about them after they were initially released and wanted in on the action, and there were too many people holding onto theirs to meet that demand. The HF-1 was initially only going to be just the first run. John Grado decided he had enough parts and could build another run of them. They were for sale for a pretty good chunk of time, and if you were an active member you could buy one without much fuss.

I can't answer for anyone else, but I didn't hold onto mine because I thought the value might continue to increase. I held onto them because I really do enjoy them. They've been my best can ever since (only to be replaced shortly with the HF2) and I never felt the urge to sell them... even though I could've gotten about an RS-2 for them.

It'd be interesting to know exactly what John Grado thought about the amazing value increase, but I'm convinced it didn't bother him that much. If it did, why on earth is he doing it again? Something worked right the first time...

Many considered the HF-1 to be a baby RS-2, which was selling for 2.5x the price. If people are calling the HF2 a baby GS1000, we're in for another treat and possible huge increase in price.


The fact that this is happening again from a major manufacturer of products related to a website forum blows me away. I'm active in a number of other hobbies (photography, ham radio, programming, etc.) and have to say, this kind of appreciation is very rare. We should all be very thankful, I know I am. Another gem like the HF-1 will be very welcome in my home

.

 

[HeadphoneAddict]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dan1son /img/forum/go_quote.gif Well I was around when the HF-1 was released, bought a pair, and have held onto them tightly ever since. To me, the reason the price went up so drastically was simply because so many people heard about them after they were initially released and wanted in on the action, and there were too many people holding onto theirs to meet that demand. The HF-1 was initially only going to be just the first run. John Grado decided he had enough parts and could build another run of them. They were for sale for a pretty good chunk of time, and if you were an active member you could buy one without much fuss. I can't answer for anyone else, but I didn't hold onto mine because I thought the value might continue to increase. I held onto them because I really do enjoy them. They've been my best can ever since (only to be replaced shortly with the HF2) and I never felt the urge to sell them... even though I could've gotten about an RS-2 for them. It'd be interesting to know exactly what John Grado thought about the amazing value increase, but I'm convinced it didn't bother him that much. If it did, why on earth is he doing it again? Something worked right the first time... Many considered the HF-1 to be a baby RS-2, which was selling for 2.5x the price. If people are calling the HF2 a baby GS1000, we're in for another treat and possible huge increase in price. The fact that this is happening again from a major manufacturer of products related to a website forum blows me away. I'm active in a number of other hobbies (photography, ham radio, programming, etc.) and have to say, this kind of appreciation is very rare. We should all be very thankful, I know I am. Another gem like the HF-1 will be very welcome in my home .

Baby PS-1000, as they sound nothing like the GS-1000.

 

[dan1son]

Quote:

Originally Posted by HeadphoneAddict /img/forum/go_quote.gif Baby PS-1000, as they sound nothing like the GS-1000.

Even better

 

[wakeride74]

$500 isn't bad for a barebones 1911 and I like the GI (so long as it has a trigger job to drop it down to about 4lbs

). As far as the 100" screen I would argue that the limitations of 720p start to become obvious at 50"+ but still that's a lot of HT joy for a low $$

The HF-2 will take at least a few years to increase in value just like any limited edition product but if the SQ lives up to the positive press around here that may happen a bit quicker depending on the final number sold.

It will be interesting to start reading some feedback after they've been around for a while. I'd like to hear how they sound with reversed bowls, flats, bagels, with the better of the portable amps like the Lisa, Pico, P-51, iQube, etc. When you think about the fact that these are being likened to the PS-1, PS-1000, and other insanely expensive headphones $450 is very reasonable if they have a similar signature and you get a very limited edition product.

 

[sachu]

calling these a baby PS-1000 is an insult to the HF-2.

If anything I thought the GS1000 and PS-1000 were very similar in their sound signature when i compared them out of the TTVJ 307A. The HF2 is definitely a better headphone to me than the GS-1000 and the PS-1000.

 

[UglyJoe]

Quote:

Originally Posted by roy_jones /img/forum/go_quote.gif Personally, I think John Grado is sensitive to this, and with the experience of what happened with the HF-1, I suspect he would be hesitant to create a limited edition headphone that could potentially disrupt his retail sale model. He doesn't capture any of the increased price that the headphones attain on the used market. I think you may underestimate how important it would be in JG's eyes to avoid distorting the value of his existing lineup.

I just don't understand this logic. I don't think that is his thought process at all. I think his thought process was something along the lines of I want to make a headphone with these qualities (no plastic in the housing, leather headband, etc.) and keep the headphone in the $400-$450 retail price range, and I want to give the buyer as much headphone as is possible for that price. Isn't that what a "thank you" headphone is? I can't see JG saying "this phone sounds too close to the PS-1000, gotta bring it back some." Just doesn't make sense to me. Especially since he can cut off orders any time he wants. He wasn't expecting 12,000 orders, and he's not going to get anywhere near that many, and I don't see how these headphones could even begin to "cut into" his flagship sales. Just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[HeadphoneAddict]

Quote:

Originally Posted by sachu /img/forum/go_quote.gif calling these a baby PS-1000 is an insult to the HF-2. If anything I thought the GS1000 and PS-1000 were very similar in their sound signature when i compared them out of the TTVJ 307A. The HF2 is definitely a better headphone to me than the GS-1000 and the PS-1000.

I posted right after CanJam that I liked the HF-2 more than the PS-1000. I said the PS-1000 bass was over-blown and the highs were slightly grainy, while the mids were nice. So, I suppose you are right, again.

 

[ucsf2012]

You know how you get the HF2 value up to $1200? ....You exaggerate like hell on your reviews. I'm deaf in both ears, but I can tell you they sound like heaven!!!

 

[TheMarchingMule]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ucsf2012 /img/forum/go_quote.gif You know how you get the HF2 value up to $1200? ....You exaggerate like hell on your reviews. I'm deaf in both ears, but I can tell you they sound like heaven!!!

Dude, I was just talking to Chuck Norris on the phone, and even he is blown away by them. You just can't beat that kind of endorsement!

(And now Billy Mays jumps in and goes: "But wait! There's more!")

 

[BigTony]

I knew the sun wouldn't last; rain has set in! I want my HF-2 NOW....

 

[fraseyboy]

This thread makes me want to sell my Lambda's and borrow $200 to afford the HF2's :/

I mean, even if I didn't like them, I could resell them without losing anything and possibly even gaining something.

Someone persuade me to/not to?

 

[Aimless1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by fraseyboy /img/forum/go_quote.gif This thread makes me want to sell my Lambda's and borrow $200 to afford the HF2's :/ I mean, even if I didn't like them, I could resell them without losing anything and possibly even gaining something. Someone persuade me to/not to?

I don't know about selling the Lamdas, but buying the HF-2 makes alot of sense. Limited edition, reputed to have great sound quality, a Grado available at US pricing, ready market if you decide to sell it and Todd's 30 day return if you don't like it. Why wouldn't you get a pair?