I actually used the Motley Fool as well. From the sound of it you are going to be one of those pattern players. You want to play the larger picture which is more easily quantified. Me personally I like to play individual companies. I try to base my investments off of a variety of factors even taking into account the psychology of consumers and other investors.
You are probably thinking, why psychology?? Well while some people try to quantify the stockmarket from top down, by analyzing results, I like to take a peek at the foundation of the matter. I like to look at it from the bottom up.
Everyonce in awhile psychology creeps into the top down perspective as well, Ive heard the phrase "Investors are scared," many times. Well, my method is a bit more complex, I try to take into account actual psychological phenomena. Since I've taken some courses in psychology this is natural for me.
It's just an idea and so far it seems to be working for me as an addition to the more common practices, though, certainly it needs to be field tested a bit more.