[Welly Wu]

I know that there are no definitive answers to this question but I am a bit bored and curious: is it possible for both DVD-Audio and SACD to survive and co-exist in a commercial sense in the next one, three, or five (or more) years? Should one just finish the other off in order to reduce confusion for the general music buying masses or not? Thank you!

 

[ManiacSmile]

I highly doubt the existance of both in the nearest future. IMO SACD already won the battle, we just have to wait for the afterparty...

 

[bifcake]

I doubt that the two will co-exist. In fact, I'm not even sure that either one of them will survive. As far as consumers are concerned, neither format offers enough of an impetus to upgrade. There was a strong impetus for most consumers to upgrade from LPs because:

a) On consumer grade equipment, the sound quality of a CD blew away the LP completely.

b) No need to flip the disk half way through

c) A much smaller and manageable media.

d) Maintenance free and more resilient media (wasn't vulnerable to dust, minor scratches, etc)


The high rez formats don't offer any of these advantages to the consumer. The consumer will be hard pressed to hear ANY sound quality difference on their systems between a CD and a high rez format.

The only advantage that it offers is multi-channel. My bet is that the majority of people listen to music as background noise, while they do something else. I don't think that too many people actually sit and listen to music. If that's the case, multi-channel holds very little appeal.

Multi-channel is much more appealing for movie watching because you're forced to sit in one spot and watch a movie. So, in that regard, you will get the benefits of multi-channel.

These are my 2 cents. Any takers?

 

[Jasper994]

There is also the possibility that both will survive. Many companies are putting out universal players (something that didn't happen with BETA/VHS... well at least not to my recollection) which means that Sony can keep doing their thing, and everyone else can do their other thing, and nobody has to choose one or the other cuz the players don't care. Many similar products coexist in the market, why not SACD and DVD-A? The only problem is that the lack of marketing might kill them both... esp DVD-A!

 

[Czilla9000]

DVD-Audio will die very soon. Whether SACD lives or not is up to consumers.

 

[markl]

HDCD and JVC's XRCD are examples of two alternative "hi-rez" formats that have survived and co-existed for a decade. No reason both new formats won't both go on.

 

[pbirkett]

Quote:

Originally posted by markl HDCD and JVC's XRCD are examples of two alternative "hi-rez" formats that have survived and co-existed for a decade. No reason both new formats won't both go on.

I hadnt even heard of XRCD until you've mentioned it just now. Shows how influential that format has been

 

[NeilPeart]

HDCD and XRCD may have existed for awhile, but does the average consumer really care? I don't know one person who specifically looks for HDCD or XRCD (I have never seen of those) enabled compact discs. Most consumers prefer convenience to sound quality, because most cannot distinguish between "good" sound quality (consumer-grade CD players) and "great" sound quality (my Meridian 507); none of my friends, many of them professional musicians, can really notice a significant improvement. This explains why MP3 CD players are so popular. Consumers love the ability to store 150+ songs on a single disc (most don't care if the tracks are encoded in 96, 128 or 160), and that is an extension of the convenience factor. People flocked to CDs for many of the reasons bifcake stated - his statements really reflect the current situation. CDs overtook the LP in the consumer's mind because it was much more convenient to store and play. The average CD players do sound better than the average LP players (this is especially true considering that CDs are much more resilient than LPs, that and the average consumer simply won't invest the time cleaning their LPs). Perhaps the hi-res formats will stick around for us crazy audiophiles, but they won't really matter. The public has already cast in their votes: noticeable convenience beats out ambiguous (to them) gains in sound quality any day.

 

[theaudiohobby]

Quote:

Perhaps the hi-res formats will stick around for us crazy audiophiles, but they won't really matter. The public has already cast in their votes: noticeable convenience beats out ambiguous (to them) gains in sound quality any day.

Couldn't agree more

 

[Ebonyks]

Everyone here (short of bifcake) is assuming that these new formats will catch on with the public. May i ask why people here think that? I think it will be a niche market, for 5-10 years or so, before it may finally catch on.

Remember people, these disks can't be read in computers (well, DVD-a, sorta) and people can't rip MP3's from them. Even if the sonic differences were audible, i'd be irrelevant because consumers would care much more about the former concept.

 

[jude]

I agree with NeilPeart. I am a supporter of SACD, having adopted it early, and then purchasing the hardware and software to use it. I am, however, also an audio enthusiast, and most of the general public is not.

I subscribe to Rhapsody (an online music service), and not most, but all, of the non-audiophile people I know who've listened to Rhapsody think it sounds as good as CDs sound. Considering this and other things, I think this is where the market will move.

As for SACD and DVD-A, I think at least one of them will survive for quite some time as an audiophile format, as the market for new-release vinyl has.

 

[Ebonyks]

Jude, i'm be inclined to disagree with your last comment about vinyl being an audiophile-only market. Other than the obivious advantage of vinyl for DJ's, it also has a significant "cool factor" with some musicans and labels, especially when you look at indie bands. Vinyl-only releases, while far from common, still exist within these communites.

Awhile ago, i went down to my local music store (A small, independant store), and asked if they had any super audio CDs, and all i got was a blank stare. If i asked for vinyl, they'd point me to the back half of the store.

But, you do have a point about services like rhapsody, i wouldn't be suprised to see these services become big far, far sooner before the new CD formats take over.

 

[jude]

[size=xx-small] Quote:

Originally posted by Ebonyks Jude, i'm be inclined to disagree with your last comment about vinyl being an audiophile-only market. Other than the obivious advantage of vinyl for DJ's, it also has a significant "cool factor" with some musicans and labels, especially when you look at indie bands. Vinyl-only releases, while far from common, still exist within these communites....

[/size]You're absolutely right. I hadn't thought about that side of it when I typed what I typed.

 

[markl]

Quote:

HDCD and XRCD may have existed for awhile, but does the average consumer really care? I don't know one person who specifically looks for HDCD or XRCD (I have never seen of those) enabled compact discs.

That's *precisely* my point. These formats survive despite an uneducated market (you probably have a number of HDCDs in your collection without even knowing it). By comparison, SACD and DVD-A have a ton more organization behind them, dozens more companies making players, tons more labels committed to one or the other format. That adds up to a lot more marketing muscle behind them than HDCD ever had (though it is now owned by Microsoft so who knows?). I can't argue that they will replace the CD, but I don't see them evaporating within the *forseeable* time horizon.

EDIT: there is the issue of the eventual disappearance of the Compact Disc in all its guises, given the industry panic over downloading music, and the overall shift in the way a large segment of the market apparently wants to buy its music. This may start a trend of a lot of music *only* available for download, never produced in CD form at all let alone SACD/DVD-A.

OTOH, ultimately with broadband, no reason we won't ultimately be downloading DVD-A and SACD formatted music.

Mark

 

[Welly Wu]

****, I hope both survive the next couple of years. I never said thrive, but that would be nice too...