The "Pink Balls LOTTERY" Has Ended-Thanks for Participating !
Jun 25, 2005 at 1:46 PM Post #121 of 156
Quote:

Originally Posted by Salt Peanuts
This would be the case if the numbers need to be in a specific order, but I don't think they do, unless I misread Pink's post, thus the division.



Gottcha, thanks for clearin' that up. So what is the final # then, the odds would be "what":1 against?
 
Jun 25, 2005 at 1:55 PM Post #122 of 156
Any combination wins, so long as you have the 5 numbers correct. So since you get 5 guesses, there is only a 5/21 chance that you'll even get one of the numbers correct. Assuming that you get past that hurdle, then you would have 4 more guesses at the 2nd correct answer, thus 4/20, etc.

So I've calcualted the odds, and to get all 5 numbers correct, you're at .00005 odds (approximately, a little less actually). So if there were 20,000 guesses entered, then chances are someone would get it right! Hey, it's possible, we have more members than that, although about half of them have never posted...

The odds of getting at least 3 balls correct is more like .0075 (more or less) or about 133:1. My guess is that if someone does guess 3 balls correctly, he or she will be the winner.

The odds of getting at least 2 balls correct are .04762, or precisely 21:1 (don't ask me why, but it works out that way). So if noboby guesses 3 balls correctly, there may be a need for a tie breaker. Depending on how many people enter the lottery, I'm sure several people will get 2 numbers correct.
 
Jun 25, 2005 at 1:56 PM Post #123 of 156
Quote:

Originally Posted by PTheD
Gottcha, thanks for clearin' that up. So what is the final # then, the odds would be "what":1 against?


If I calculated correctly, the odd of someone getting all five numbers correct is 1 in 20349.
 
Jun 25, 2005 at 1:58 PM Post #124 of 156
Quote:

Originally Posted by Salt Peanuts
If I calculated correctly, the odd of someone getting all five numbers correct is 1 in 20349.


Agreed. See my post above. I rounded to keep it simple.
 
Jun 25, 2005 at 2:06 PM Post #126 of 156
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wmcmanus
Any combination wins, so long as you have the 5 numbers correct. So since you get 5 guesses, there is only a 5/21 chance that you'll even get one of the numbers correct. Assuming that you get past that hurdle, then you would have 4 more guesses at the 2nd correct answer, thus 4/20, etc.

So I've calcualted the odds, and to get all 5 numbers correct, you're at .00005 odds (approximately, a little less actually). So if there were 20,000 guesses entered, then chances are someone would get it right! Hey, it's possible, we have more members than that, although about half of them have never posted...

The odds of getting at least 3 balls correct is more like .0075 (more or less) or about 133:1. My guess is that if someone does guess 3 balls correctly, he or she will be the winner.

The odds of getting at least 2 balls correct are .04762, or precisely 21:1 (don't ask me why, but it works out that way). So if noboby guesses 3 balls correctly, there may be a need for a tie breaker. Depending on how many people enter the lottery, I'm sure several people will get 2 numbers correct.


Hi Wayne,

Yes, It's unlikely that anyone will guess all five numbers but the person who guesses the most numbers will win.. if more than one person guesses say 3 or 4 numbers then it will go to a tie break.

Mike.
 
Jun 25, 2005 at 4:42 PM Post #127 of 156
The odds are 20349:1, against. An easier way to express it would be 21 choose 5. And expanding 21C5, you end up with 21! / (16! * 5!)

And I've posted a list of every possible combination in a previous post (#104), sorted in ascending order for ease of use. But I had the odds wrong. In that one, I did 21P5 instead of 21C5, and I'll just blame it on me being really tired. In calculating permutations, the order of the numbers does matter, and thus you have more outcomes.

And here's the list, if anyone missed it the first time around... Here it is. It was generated by a dozen line C program.
 
Jun 25, 2005 at 7:09 PM Post #129 of 156
Not Another Upgrade! I can't stand it, where is all this lottery material coming from...does Head-Fi have a mysterious benifactor? Charles Dickens strikes Head-Fi.
eek.gif
 
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