[JxK]

Here it is.
It's a bit old (2007) but in some ways that makes it even more interesting. You can read it, and see which of the predictions are coming true, and which aren't.

 

[Uncle Erik]

Interesting - thanks for the link.

A couple of them seem to grasp what's going on. The problem with Big Music is twofold.

One, the costs of production and distribution have dropped to almost nothing. Anyone who wants to record now can in a spare bedroom or garage, and get pretty decent quality. They can then distribute for very little on the Internet. They can compete effectively against $20 CDs - even $2 or $3 can justify itself. So Big Music is now having to justify an overpriced economic model.

The other problem is that Big Music puts everything into acts that only appeal to children. They only want the big score from disposable teen pop or manufactured rap. The problem there is that most consumers of it have fairly limited resources - they will get the cheapest version which is usually an illegal download. So Big Music is makinga product specifically tailored to those who don't pay for music. Idiots.

I like SACDs and LPs, have several thousand to spend on music each year, and am mostly ignored. I have to buy niche products and used records. Instead of focusing solely on consumers who will rip them off, Big Music would rather spit in the face of someone willing to hand over a few thousand. Like I said, idiots.

 

[waterlogic]

With the explosion of internet and possibility of music sharing, the industry has to adopt drastically offering music downloads at attractive pricing.

I think it is difficult to kill music sharing today, and almost impossible in the near future. With filesharing services (as Rapidshare) and sites like Youtube the speed of music distribution will increase exponentially.
Apple is well aware what is going on and they are adopting quite well (for now).

We will see more and more specialized music sites addressing different public and prices will go down. The question will be how to reach wider audience and attract people to still buy music i.e. to make it less convenient for them to use the (illegal and free of charge ?) music sharing options.
Price and the speed of delivery (downloads) will be the key balancing factor.

Watch sites like hdtracks.com, linnrecords.com and many others take a swing - which is good, for music will be more and more accessible also for people who presently cannot think of spending money on music.

The music industry as we know it will dissapear, and there will be less and less physical music carriers (SACD, CDs, DVDs).

And this is without any new ground-braking technologies in music recording & reproduction...

 

[SiriuslyCold]

you might want to see this too

How Much Do Music Artists Earn Online?