nibiyabi
Headphoneus Supremus
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- May 4, 2006
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"Reverts" to last year? Last year, the year everyone said he "sucked", A-Rod's line was .292/.401/.535 (adjusted). Even if you're a baseball "purist", i.e. looking at the "classic" stats (i.e., those that don't matter that much), he had 35HR/121RBI. His EQA was .315, his VORP was 51.6, and his WARP was 6.0. That is a great, great year. Not quite MVP-quality, but he certainly had a year any player would be proud of. Could it measure up to 2005, when he went .332/.439/.643 (adjusted), .350 EQA, 91.0 VORP, and 10.3 WARP? No, but it was basically the same as 2004, a year for which he was praised for going .290/.382./.524 (adjusted), .308 EQA, 53.7 VORP, and 7.9 WARP. Part of the reason for A-Rod's success in 2005 was due to the fact that his BABIP enjoyed a random spike (.349) and his IF/F enjoyed a random nosedive (8.6%). He has the potential to be scary good this year because his BABIP, IF/F, and LD% are not up to par with his career averages, i.e., he has been "unlucky" this year. If more balls start dropping (like they should), he could be doing even better.
EDIT: I forgot to mention that the idea of a "clutch hitter" has been debunked. People can do it for a game, or a series, or a postseason, or sometimes even for an entire season, but this is inevitably balanced out by subsequent sub-par "clutch" seasons (i.e., regression to the mean). No one has been able to consistently score high in the "clutch" category for an entire career. A-Rod, for example, was -5.3 and -8.8 in 2004 and 2005, respectively, whereas he was +3.2 and +2.3 last year and this year, respectively. Once your team gets to the playoffs, it's a veritable crapshoot (see last year's champion if you want an example). To equate someone of A-Rod's greatness with Miguel Cabrera or Troy Glaus is simply ludicrous. Miguel Cabrera has the potential -- he has been putting up A-Rod-like numbers for a few years now -- but he needs far more playing time before we can put him on A-Rod's level. And Troy Glaus? C'mon. He's a very good player but his career pales in comparison to A-Rod's. That these two players were on championship teams means nothing. I could have been a relief pitcher for the 1927 Yankees and we would have had no trouble going all the way.
EDIT2: And the reason the Yankees suck is that they have a nasty habit of building a terrifying lineup with what seem to be almost purposely-placed holes, though they are doing better this year with only one. But it's really, really glaring. Doug Mientkiewicz? Are you serious? And their bullpen (aside from Rivera) sucks every year. They're just lucky Bruney and Myers are playing at around their 90th percentiles right now. Mariano Rivera should get better, but then again he is 37, so they can't lean on him forever. Their farm system also stinks. Basically, they have so much damned money that they have to make a few good decisions, but their management is so bad that they have managed to stink up player development and player value year-in, year-out for the past decade or so.
EDIT: I forgot to mention that the idea of a "clutch hitter" has been debunked. People can do it for a game, or a series, or a postseason, or sometimes even for an entire season, but this is inevitably balanced out by subsequent sub-par "clutch" seasons (i.e., regression to the mean). No one has been able to consistently score high in the "clutch" category for an entire career. A-Rod, for example, was -5.3 and -8.8 in 2004 and 2005, respectively, whereas he was +3.2 and +2.3 last year and this year, respectively. Once your team gets to the playoffs, it's a veritable crapshoot (see last year's champion if you want an example). To equate someone of A-Rod's greatness with Miguel Cabrera or Troy Glaus is simply ludicrous. Miguel Cabrera has the potential -- he has been putting up A-Rod-like numbers for a few years now -- but he needs far more playing time before we can put him on A-Rod's level. And Troy Glaus? C'mon. He's a very good player but his career pales in comparison to A-Rod's. That these two players were on championship teams means nothing. I could have been a relief pitcher for the 1927 Yankees and we would have had no trouble going all the way.
EDIT2: And the reason the Yankees suck is that they have a nasty habit of building a terrifying lineup with what seem to be almost purposely-placed holes, though they are doing better this year with only one. But it's really, really glaring. Doug Mientkiewicz? Are you serious? And their bullpen (aside from Rivera) sucks every year. They're just lucky Bruney and Myers are playing at around their 90th percentiles right now. Mariano Rivera should get better, but then again he is 37, so they can't lean on him forever. Their farm system also stinks. Basically, they have so much damned money that they have to make a few good decisions, but their management is so bad that they have managed to stink up player development and player value year-in, year-out for the past decade or so.
