[erlik]

I think it will take 2 years for flash to reach the 30 gb that I consider as the minimum for a DAP nowadays.

However by then 120+ GB HDD based players should be comonplace. If portable video takes hold them maybe these will be the DAP of choice because of the space that video takes.

Also these HDD players should be able to accomodate even a relatively large collection (around 400 CDs) in lossless format, which may be the prefered solution for a lot of people on these forums.

I think that flash will mainly take over the 30 GB ipod market, not the high end. Most players that want to include decent video will need to be no smaller that current ipods/zen vision/archos to accomodate the screen anyway, so why not put in an HDD and offer lots of space.

 

[MCC]

I guesstimate this should happen in 2009/2010. With a 160GB 2.5" flash drive recently announced, it's apparent that flash is moving ahead very quickly. Eventually the price will come down to hopefully less than the cost of a mechanical hard drive once they are miniaturized enough. I believe Samsung is working on a technology to stack flash dies on top of each other. Combine this with a process shrink or two and you could probably fit 30GB on a single chip by then. Right now they're so expensive because a) many chips are needed and b) low production.

The switch is inevitable. A switch to flash would mean lower production cost (a chip or two vs a mechanically complex hard drive) better battery life, increased write speeds, thinner profile, and better reliability. I also anticipate 1.8" compatible flash drives for manufactures to implement in existing products during the transition.

 

[Csidinim]

while all these nice new benefits [increased durability, improved battery life (ultimately, battery lifespan), less failing parts] all sound ideal to the consumer, is it a strong possible outcome in the reality of our economics system? no one thinks that these features all go in complete contradiction of one of the core common philosophies behind the companies that give us these products- disposable goods, planned obsoleteness. while yes, flash media makes it possible for us to have electronics that can survive forever in the future, will it really be that way or is that just wishful and naive thinking?

 

[nfusion770]

I would imagine about 2 years to 32gb as well. Its true that a feasible 32gb flash drive will probably be competing with a 160gb hard drive, but a point will come where 120gb flash (for example) will meet the price/ capacity point of the vast majority of consumers, and the 300gb hd based player will be more than most people feel they need. This is the point where a company like apple would probably make a move.

However, I can also imagine an ongoing need for small video/mp3/portable hard drives as large as capacities will allow. Outside of some sort of online storage/ streaming service, there will always be those people who'll find a way to take advantage of anything tech can give them.

I guess I can see a market for a 32gb Nano- like player, a flash based full size ipod- like player, and super capacity hdd player. Maybe there is some way to bridge the gap with a hybrid.

 

[manuvajpai]

Are you satisfied now?

 

[neosoul]

Well if you are willing to go the ssd route you can already get one of the 128gb 1.8" drives for daps like the Ipod. There are already sellers out there that sell adapters to facilitate this swap. The drive will run you $220-300 though. I've seen some of these adapters on ebay.

 

[wuwhere]

Quote:

Originally Posted by marvelousmarvyd /img/forum/go_quote.gif Well if you are willing to go the ssd route you can already get one of the 128gb 1.8" drives for daps like the Ipod. There are already sellers out there that sell adapters to facilitate this swap. The drive will run you $220-300 though. I've seen some of these adapters on ebay.

Has anyone successfully tried this yet?

 

[estreeter]

SSD technology has a major Achilles heel, and no-one has mentioned it in this thread. I dont know how many of us keep a DAP for more than a year or two, but I fully intend to be using my 160GB Classic 3 years from now:

Solid-state drive - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

That said, I havent had an issue with my Samsung or Sony flash-based players, but I'd be very hesitant to buy one of these secondhand - as Uncle Erik likes to point out, its a product designed to fail with a certain amount of time : thats fine when you have a few gig of games and Britney rips, not so hot when you are storing a lifetime's collection of music losslessly.

 

[wuwhere]

Not in a DAP. How many times would you write in a DAP? Not the same number of times as in a PC or laptop.

Quote:

Originally Posted by estreeter /img/forum/go_quote.gif SSD technology has a major Achilles heel, and no-one has mentioned it in this thread. I dont know how many of us keep a DAP for more than a year or two, but I fully intend to be using my 160GB Classic 3 years from now: Solid-state drive - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia That said, I havent had an issue with my Samsung or Sony flash-based players, but I'd be very hesitant to buy one of these secondhand - as Uncle Erik likes to point out, its a product designed to fail with a certain amount of time : thats fine when you have a few gig of games and Britney rips, not so hot when you are storing a lifetime's collection of music losslessly.

 

[estreeter]

For the majority of Head-Fiers, I would agree with that, wuwhere. For the fickle MP3 loving public, I have would suggest that movies, music and games will come and go : churn is where its at for something like the iTunes Store. Apple dont want us ripping album after treasured album to the iPod - they want as many individual downloads from as many artists as possible. It might be cheaper by the pound, but would you really want your friends to know you downloaded the complete works of Amy Winehouse *before* she hit the skids ?

That said, I agree that its a much bigger issue for those using SSD-based netbooks and the like. Still not crazy about the 'performance degrades over time' aspect.

 

[psikey]

I'd say now is that time, with the introduction of the 64GB Touch.

Thats a significant amount of storage compared to other flash devices which have hovered between 2-8GB for a few years now with the standard still being 8-32GB (other than the Touch at 64GB).

 

[wuwhere]

Though SSDs are still very expensive, they will drop in price and become price competitive with flash based players and will eventually become cheaper. There are already 1" SSDs. They also use much less power than 1.8" HDD. Samsung has already started sampling a SATA based 1" SSD with a 30mm by 51mm by 3.75mm footprint in 16GB, 32GB and 128GB capacities.

 

[Goratrix]

Quote:

Originally Posted by estreeter /img/forum/go_quote.gif as Uncle Erik likes to point out, its a product designed to fail with a certain amount of time : thats fine when you have a few gig of games and Britney rips, not so hot when you are storing a lifetime's collection of music losslessly.

but do you really store your "lifetime's collection" on your ipod only? now that I think about it, I have: 2 copies of my collection in FLAC (on external HDDs, one at home, one offsite, at my parents', just to be sure) and 4 copies in mp3 (2 on those two HDDs, one in ipod, one in laptop)...ipod and laptop version is updated continually as I get new albums, external HDDs get updated every few months or so.