Interesting Article
Why Superstition Is Logical
By John Tierney
New York Times
5/7/2008
Are you superstitious? I like to think I’m not, but I’m reconsidering after seeing the research of Jane Risen and the other psychologists mentioned in my Findings column. Dr. Risen, a professor at the University of Chicago, knows better than anyone how irrational superstition is. But consider what she does on plane trips.
“I don’t turn my watch to the new time zone until my plane lands,” she told me. “I know that it has nothing to do with whether or not we get to the location without difficulties and on time, but I just feel like it’s presumptuous to assume that everything will work smoothly — and that by engaging in that presumptuous behavior it somehow makes it more likely that things won’t go smoothly.”
Her reluctance to tempt fate is irrational in one way, but there’s also a certain logic to it, as Dr. Risen and a colleague, Thomas Gilovich of Cornell, found by monitoring the reaction times of college students who read a series of stories on a computer and then had to indicate as quickly as possible whether a one-sentence ending made sense or not. Some students, for instance, read a story about a woman named Julie who heard a forecast of rain and carried an umbrella; other students read that she didn’t carry an umbrella. Then both groups of students would be asked if this conclusion made sense:
“As Julie is walking to class later that afternoon, it suddenly starts to rain.”
The correct answer for either group was “yes” — rain was a logical outcome considering that it had been forecast. But the students who read about Julie not bringing her umbrella were quicker than the other group to recognize that it made sense. Dr. Risen and Dr. Gilovich argue that an action that tempts fate reflexively calls a negative outcome to mind, which, in turn, makes it seem especially likely to occur.
How does this reflexive thinking work? The researchers did another experiment in which a subliminal message — the word “rain” — was flashed on the screen just before the students read the final sentence of the story. This time there wasn’t a difference in reaction time: The students who read about Julie carrying an umbrella were just as quick to realize that a rainy ending made sense as were the students who read about her not carrying the umbrella. The subliminal priming, just like a story about tempting fate, made the subjects reflexively think that a rainy outcome was more likely.
This reflexive thinking may be irrational, but there’s a logic in the way the brain makes this instant calculation of probability. An outcome that’s instantly accessible — rain — seems more likely than an outcome that isn’t accessible. And negative images tend to be more vivid and accessible. We’re more likely to remember the time we got drenched than the many days we stayed dry. While cultural conditioning may play some role — we’ve been told the old adage about not carrying an umbrella causing rain — Dr. Risen and Dr. Gilovich say that their series of experiments shows this reluctance to tempt fate isn’t just the result of hearing about superstitions:
Although some societies and cultures stress the role of supernatural agents more than others, we want to emphasize that the beliefs we have investigated are by no means absent in populations in which notions of fate and the intervention of supernatural agents are not well articulated. The present data, involving the responses of Western-educated college students, make that clear. People in different cultures, regardless of their explicit beliefs, do not much differ in the tendency for negative outcomes to jump to mind and in the use of accessibility as a cue for judging likelihood. Instead, cultures are more likely to differ in their access to and reliance on abstract rules that over-ride such automatic associations
Thus, even those of who don’t think we’re superstitious have a reflexive fear of tempting fate. In other experiments, Dr. Risen and Dr. Gilovich found that students think that not doing their reading makes them more likely to be called on in class; that trading away a lottery ticket makes that ticket more likely to win; that an applicant to Stanford graduate school is less likely to get in if he goes around wearing a Stanford T-shirt. The researchers conclude:
The studies presented here document a widespread belief that it is bad luck to tempt fate, even among those who would deny the existence of fate. So what happens when people believe things they know are false? They do their class reading, bring their umbrellas, hold onto their lottery tickets, and (try to) avoid boasting or presuming anything too soon. And when they don’t follow their intuition, they think about how they might be punished. All the while, they shake their heads and roll their eyes, knowing that their behavior and worries are unwarranted.