[LobsterSan]

I am currently terrified of earthquakes, and the possible threat of an upcoming quake of a large-magnitude in the near future. So much so that my fear has caused me to lose sleep and feel on edge when alone. Usually I am not susceptible to this kind of fear and irrationality, but I can't help the stress that I feel that an earthquake could strike at any moment.

For a little background information on my situation, I live in Fukuoka city -- the largest city in Japan's southernmost main island of Kyushu. Prior to March 20, 2005, Fukuoka was not known or suspected to be seismically active. That changed on the morning of March 20, when a 7.0 quake hit and caused a fair amount of damage to property and fortunately, minimal damage to people's health and well-being. Since that time, we've had numerous (maybe 8-12) tactile aftershocks with varying intensities, and it got to the point where I didn't even flinch if I felt a 3.0-3.5 aftershock. However, just a week ago we experienced the largest aftershock yet, with a magnitude in the low 5's. The quake struck at 6:00 AM local time, which woke me up and had me pretty rattled. Yet, I didn't think too much about it at the time, and was able to go back to sleep and back to my life as usual.

Since that magnitude 5 aftershock, however, I've been hearing all sorts of predictions and promonitions. It seems like everyone and their dog has some sort of theory that we are going to be hit with another big quake in the near future, like somewhere within the next 1-3 days. I've also been hearing that many people saw "earthquake clouds" two nights ago, which are apparently long and thin snake-like clouds that appear a few days before an earthquake strikes. At first I thought it was complete BS, even though it seems like everyone is talking about these so-called earthquake clouds. But perhaps it isn't completely unfounded? While doing a bit of research on the subject of earthquake prediction (or lack thereof), I stumbled across a few articles (whose sources are somewhat suspect in that they also appear to be promoting sales of a book). One such article can be found here.

Though I don't particularly put much faith in those who say they have psychic ability, I've been hearing so many different premonitions for the near future and accounts of premonitions that came true with the last two earthquakes. I'm sure a lot of it is just feeding on people's insecurities and fears at the moment, but the stories aren't helping my insecurities in the least. As well, my rabbit has been acting somewhat strangely and my knee has been bothering me for the past week, beginning just before the last large aftershock ocurred. I know it sounds kind of ridiculous, but I wonder if there is some basis to these fears.

In the end, I'm sure most of this is just tension, stress, and post-traumatic fear that is circulating amongst the people of Fukuoka. Adding to the hysterics the recent tensions with China, the horrendous train accident in hyougo-ken, and the terrible tsunami and earthquakes that hit Indonesia, I'm sure people are just letting their fears do the talking and rumor starting. All the same, I'm seriously considering sleeping under my desk for a couple of nights.

I lived in California during my college days, but only experienced a couple of mild earth rollers. The 7.0 here was a new experience, and a terrifying one at that. For peace of mind, does anyone have any practical earthquake preparedness tips or advice for dealing with post-earthquake stress?

 

[LobsterSan]

I found another interesting report, with one mention of the pre-quake clouds here:

Quote:

Originally Posted by http://www.fujitaresearch.com/reports/earthquakes.html 7. Thermal Anamoly One of the most interesting, but least well-documented, proposals put to the recent meeting of the IASPEI sub-commission on Earthquake Prediction, is the idea that anomalies in ground temperature may be connected with seismic activity. The idea that ground temperature anomalies are significant is seductive, as ground-temperature is a parameter which can cheaply and easily monitored over vast areas by use of satellites such as Russia’s Meteosat. However only two papers (11,12) have been published on use of such thermal anomalies, and both deal with only one seismic event - hardly sufficient data on which to test the authors’ claims. Nevertheless, as the method - if it worked - would have so much to recommend it the data from the second paper is summarized here (the first paper was published in Russian and translation was not available). Case Study Five: The Datong Earthquake On 18 Oct 1989, the Shaxi Province of China was hit by the Datong earthquake (M=6.1 epicenter = 39°57’N, 113°43’E, h=9km). From noon on Oct 15 - 2 am on Oct 16 an area of increasing temperature (ca. 300km long x 20 km wide) was observed running WSW-ENE around Datong. Within this area observed temperatures were 4° higher than in the surrounding mountains. From 2 am on Oct 16 the anomaly increased to a maximum value of 5-6°C higher than the surrounding area, a value reached 22 hours before the earthquake. Following the main shock the temperature anomaly began to decay. The pre-seismic temperature rise was accompanied by cloud formation . In the early phase this was a cloud 350 km x 50 km running generally SW-NE and centering around Datong. In the period of maximum anomaly it was a long thin (1800 x 30 km) cloud, running E-W. The Chinese researchers assert that this temperature anomaly and cloud formation were the direct result of what they term “earth-degassing”. They believe that the increased levels of CO2, H2 and water vapor (for which they present no data) lead to the creation of a localized greenhouse effect. Clearly the IASPEI panel was more cautious in the their review of the paper. Indeed, one member remarked that the paper as presented would not be accepted by any reputable research journal. Admittedly, the paper has been poorly translated, contains no primary data, and merely asserts that temperature increase is due to seismic activity rather than meteorological causes. Also, if such “degassing” occurs, it should be possible to measure directly, and again no supporting data is presented. However, the panel concludes that the method cannot be discounted without further research, and that, if the method could be proved, it would one of the most useful methods of earthquake prediction - able to cover vast areas and provide real-time data.

 

[Dimitris]

I think you should take it easy. I come from a place where many earthquakes take place and you have to get used to them. There is nothing you can do to predict them. I remember there was a big discussion a long time ago about scientists measuring the tension of grounds so that they predict an earthquake. To be honest i dont believe this is possible cause i dont think they can capture the conditions of underground stresses 100%. Maybe getting a dog could help you. I have noticed that many dogs start barking a lot and without stoping before an earthquake. I gues they can feel the earthquake coming and they are trying to warn everybody else.

 

[wallijonn]

Listen to all the domesticated animals and wild life. If at dusk to dawn there are no crickets chirping, no dogs barking, no chickens cackling, no birds flying - you might experience an earthquake with 24 hours.

http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Earthquake...tionChina.html :
Quote:

In 1920, the largest earthquake to hit China with a magnitude of 8.5 occurred in Haiyuan County, Ninghsia Province. According to reports of eyewitnesses, prior to this earthquake, wolves were seen running around in packs, dogs were barking unusually, and sparrows were flying around wildly. It is reported that prior to the 6.8 magnitude earthquake in 1966 in Hsingtai County, Hopei Province, in Northern China, all the dogs at a village near the epicenter had deserted their kennels and thus survived the disaster. Prior to the earthquake of July 18, 1969, (magnitude 7.4) in the Pohai Sea, unusual behavior was observed in seagulls, sharks, and five different species of fish. Based on observations of unusual behavior of giant pandas, deer, yaks, loaches, tigers and other animals, a warning was issued at the Tientsin People's Park Zoo, two hours before the earthquake struck. The Chinese began to study systematically the unusual animal behavior, and the Haicheng earthquake of February 1975 was predicted successfully as early as in mid-December of 1974. The most unusual circumstance of animal behavior was that of snakes that came out of hibernation and froze on the surface of the earth. Also a group of rats appeared. These events were succeeded by a swarm of earthquakes at the end of December 1974. During the following month, in January 1975, thousands of reports of unusual animal behavior were received from the general area. Local people saw hibernating snakes coming out from their holes and into the snow. In the first three days in February the activity intensified even more and unusual behavior of the larger animals such as cows, horses, dogs and pigs was reported. On February 4, 1975, an earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck the Haicheng County, Liaoning Province. More instances of unusual animal behavior were reported. A stock breeder in northern China, feeding his animals before dawn on July 28, 1976, in the area of the Kaokechuang People's Commune, approximately 40 kilometers away from the city of Tangshan, reported that his horses and mules instead of eating were jumping and kicking until they finally broke loose and ran outside. A few seconds later, a dazzling white flash illuminated the sky. Tremendous rumbling noises were heard as a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck the Tangshan area. Other reports of unusual animal behavior prior to the occurrence of earthquakes have been reported in the literature and in books. Such unusual animal behavior included goats refusing to go into pens; cats and dogs picking up their offspring and carrying them outdoors; pigs squealing strangely; chickens dashing out of the coops in the middle of the night; fish dashing about aimlessly; and birds leaving their nests. It has also been reported that zoo animals refused to go back into their shelters at night; snakes, lizards and other small mammals evacuated their underground nests; insects congregated in huge swarms near the seashores; cattle sought higher ground; domestic animals became agitated; and wild birds left their usual habitats. Surveys done in China show that the largest number of cases of unusual animal behavior precede the earthquake, particularly in the 24 hours before it strikes. In other parts of China where major earthquakes have been preceded by foreshocks, unusual behavior in rats, fish, and snakes were observed as early as three days prior to the earthquake, but continuing to several hours, or even a few minutes before.

So if the crickets are chirping, the cocks are crowing, the dogs are barking - sleep tight.