[marvin]

Quote:

Originally Posted by blessingx Only somewhat related - but I wonder if even the threat of a new HD VMD format [NYTimes] could play a part in lowering Blu-ray prices? Probably wishful thinking. Maybe a new format war could be fun.

An HD-VMD alike spec has already been beaten. It's pretty much identical to the initial studio supported HD-DVD spec which used DVD-9 discs and encoding advances to fit HD content onto them. Prices were estimated to be within $50 of current DVD player prices (more expensive decoders), the same disc stamping plants could be reused, and the only real cost change would be in mastering to HD standards rather than SD standards.

That spec is fairly close to the edge on size for high quality encodes which is why the blue laser diode standards won out. Lossless soundtracks featured on some Blu-Ray discs would have been nixed too. Not enough space.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aevum /img/forum/go_quote.gif the thing is, that VMD has nothing for the studios, the DRM is too weak and they are a bit late in the game for studio support, but it might still stand a good chance in asia if the mastering costs are low and they can produce the players at a cheap cost, who gives a rats behind about the american and european market when you can dominate the indian and chinese market, 600 million people vs 2.1 billion,

You're low balling the market size of the non-Chinese/Indian market. The US is 300M, the EU is 500M, Canada is 30M and Japan is 130M. Total market size is around 960M. China and India combined run 2.5B.

Still, total market size doesn't tell anything about profitability. The 960M of the Western + Japan market are high end consumers with low piracy rates. The 2.5B of India + China are low end consumers with ridiculous piracy rates. As far as profitability goes, Western + Japan wipes the floor with India + China.

Also, while the high definition market penetration in the Western + Japan market is still pretty low, the high definition market penetration the India + China market is nearly nonexistent. HD-VMD offers the India + China market higher player costs and higher mastering costs for an extra gain of resolution that a vanishingly small percentage of the population can use. Low cost wireless internet distribution will likely win out in these markets as it will allow for an income stream not tainted by rampant piracy.

 

[brainsalad]

Virtually every person I know thinks DVD is good enough and does not see the value in HD. They equate HD to the krap quality on the major networks "HD" broadcast and TNT/TBS "HD" broadcasts. People need to be sold on the benefit of the quality of TRUE HD.

After that it's going to take sub $200 price on the players, sub $20 on the disks, lower prices on HD flat screens, and better/more content on HD broadcast.

It's going to happen, slowly but surely.

 

[Aevum]

btw, while were on the subject, i´ve seen ps3, HD DVD and blueray demo booths in malls and shopping centers, and sometimes the video dosnt seem fluid, it seems like its jumping along or flickering, whats up with that ?

 

[wanderman]

they are stupid for attempting something like this imo.

 

[nysulli]

Having just bought my first hdtv and a HD dvd player, I think this is possibly the dumbest thing sony could do. Had there been a sub $300 blu-ray player (competitive with the $200 1080p HDdvd I purchased) i would have gone with Blu-ray over HD. Price is the sole roadblock keeping blu-ray out of the mainstream.

hearing news like this really makes it clear why everyone of sony's proprietary formats has failed, its almost as if they don't want Blu-ray to be successful.

I'd bet if players fell under $300, and discs dropped $5, you'd see a surge in blu-ray sales, and sony's overall revenue from blu-ray would be the same as it is now, but with greater market penetration, it would have far better staying power in the long run, much like DVD has today.

 

[blessingx]

More interesting news:
Lack of competition sends Blu-ray player prices upward - Engadget

 

[UseName]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aevum /img/forum/go_quote.gif VMD will never catch on in europe and the US without studio licensing, personaly, since most independent film makers are turning to the "independent" subbrands of major studios to try to sell their movies, the VMD might pick up in places with major film industries like the bollywood circle in india or the hong kong movie market, aswell as the rising chinese cinema market, the same way VCD and SVCD picked up in asia, it provided a cheap alternative at a time where DVD was too expencive for that market, plus VCD and SVCD didnt require much modification to manufacturing lines as they were based on the compact disc data standart, theres also probobly going to be a VCD equivalent for high definition video, basicly using HD-Divx, HD-Xvid and HD-WMV to fit movies in 720p and 1080 in to single and dual layer DVD´s, compressed HD movies might fit in to 2-4-8gb, i have seen a HD-DVD rip of stardust that fits in 2gb at 720p, the problem was that it was english only and all the extras have been removed, but depending on the market, it might be better off, now, theres another point of view on the issue, as presented at slashdot a few days ago, that with the price slashing of HD-DVD equipment, they might not be any good as a next generation format, but they are excelent quality upscaling DVD players, aswell as having a selection of allready published HD-DVD movies on the market at a heavy discount, meaning that if you have to buy a a new DVD player, you might aswell pick up a HD-DVD thats on sale for more or less the same price both are around 100-150 bucks now considering a good upscaling DVD player and a toshiba HD-DVD thats on sale, as for blue-ray, the clock is ticking, fibre to the home and cable means an increase in bandwidth, which will lead to movie rentals and TV on demand trough sling, AppleTV, Hulu and such, meaning that the physical format market will drop and become a niche market for people who like to have hard printed copies of movies, but as most of the market is rentals, being able to remove the part where you actually have to go somewhere, get the disc, watch it and 2 days later you have to go and return the disk might be positive for the rental market, my opinion, if they dont have wallmart branded chinese players for $99,95 on the shelf for xmas, blue-ray will be heading in the direction of HD-DVD,

You pretty much said everything I was thinking while I was reading this thread. I have a hard time justifing a $400 purchase on a player and I am into this kind of thing. My parents, on the other hand, just got a normal DVD player last year.

 

[uofmtiger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by blessingx /img/forum/go_quote.gif More interesting news: Lack of competition sends Blu-ray player prices upward - Engadget

I wonder where they are getting their prices...after one search of the LG BH200 on Amazon, I found it for 549.77 from Vanns.. The article has a price of 666 on 3/12...Looks like prices are falling to me.

I would be very surpised if prices did not continue to fall on players. The money is in selling movies, so more players in people's homes will mean more money.


Quote:

as for blue-ray, the clock is ticking, fibre to the home and cable means an increase in bandwidth, which will lead to movie rentals and TV on demand trough sling, AppleTV, Hulu and such, meaning that the physical format market will drop and become a niche market for people who like to have hard printed copies of movies, but as most of the market is rentals, being able to remove the part where you actually have to go somewhere, get the disc, watch it and 2 days later you have to go and return the disk might be positive for the rental market,

I think it will be at least 8 years before we see buying the physical disc as a niche in the US. Most people do not have media computers in their living rooms and it will take a long time before fibre optic is put in everywhere. Right now, a lot of people are using Netflix type services for delivering their movies, so it is already pretty convenient to get a rental nowadays.

 

[kain]

I just can't believe the new line of blu-ray players pioneer announced LAST WEEK is not 2.0 compliant!!!!!!!!!!!!! this seriously BLOWS MY MIND!!!!!!!! this blatant screw you from pioneer has solidified my decision to never purchase another product from them again