Goodbye DVD, hello Blu-ray & EVD!

[markl]

OK, so they're already working on the replacement for the DVD, a new optical disc and laser system called Blu-ray that will be compatible with high-definition TV at full-resolution (DVD has lower resolution than is possible on hi-def TVs). Blu-ray has been bubbling under for a while now, and is a standard that has been adopted by major Japanese and European electronics manufacturers. Here's a quick link explaining Blu-ray: http://whatis.techtarget.com/definit...810790,00.html

Now, I just discovered, China has created its own competitor for DVD called the "EVD" or Enhanced Video Disc. This disc will boast 5 times the video resolution of the DVD. China is developing this to prevent their DVD manufacturers (actually most DVD players in the world are made in China) from having to pay royalties on the DVD technology to Japanese and European companies that have increased the cost of DVD players in China itself. Here's a couple links on EVD:
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/hardware/eme...9117430,00.htm
http://www.wired.com/news/business/0...w=wn_tophead_8

It's clear that China is going to support EVD, while the rest of the world goes Blu-ray. What will this mean? Will EVD rear its ugly head in the West and spoil the Blu-ray party? Will this be another VHS vs. Beta or even SACD vs. DVD-Audio debacle of competing formats and market confusion?

Also, no word (that I've heard yet, if anyone knows anything please inform us!) on whether or not there will be a new audio standard for either Blu-ray or EVD that could potentially replace SACD and DVD-A with an even higher rez medium.

Mark

 

[lini]

Quote:

Originally posted by markl It's clear that China is going to support EVD, while the rest of the world goes Blu-ray. What will this mean? Will EVD rear its ugly head in the West and spoil the Blu-ray party? Will this be another VHS vs. Beta or even SACD vs. DVD-Audio debacle of competing formats and market confusion?

What makes you so sure that EVD will have an ugly head? I don't see any problem with the Chinese working on a dvd alternative for themselves without a heap of licensing fees on it - actually, I'd rather encourage that just like alternative operating systems like Linux, FreeBSD... Apart from that, the Chinese have no reaon for "spoiling the Blu-ray" party, as the Japanese manage that all by themselves - google for "AOD", in case you need further info...

Greetings from Munich!

Manfred / lini

 

[markl]

I have no idea if EVD will make its way to the West (probably only the Chinese know for sure), that's why I posed it as a question. Why wouldn't the Chinese want to penetrate our market with their technology? They already build most of our DVD players. Surely the Chinese owners of EVD will want to charge the West royalties on any machine that plays both Blu-ray and EVD. Turnabout is fair play as they say.

It does seem feasible that if we have two competing schemes in the same market like we do with SACD and DVD-A we could have the same problem of this movie studio supports this standard, that one supports the other standard. This machine plays this format, that machine plays the other format, etc. This has not helped in market acceptance and understanding of the new audio formats. It could be another VHS vs. BETA situation in the making, seems to me, consumers having to decide which format to invest in, and roll the dice. With 1/4 of the world's population, and such a huge unified market, surely Hollywood will want to accomodate them by producing their movies in EVD format. Why not try to sell them in the West, too? It will increase the studios cost to have to produce movies in two formats instead of one, this could inflate the price we have to pay for Blu-ray and EVD movies.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. I tried to google AOD but didn't get any menaingful hits.

Mark

 

[Wodgy]

I think it's too early to come to any conclusions. Both of these technologies are still fairly far off -- DVD is the greatest bonanza the media guys have ever had, and they'll probably be extraordinarily careful not to mess with it in any way that risks consumer alienation or confusion.

 

[markl]

I agree, it's a ways off, and its too early to know how it will shape up. I merely post for entertainment and discussion.

The problem will come when people switch over to HDTV. They will soon realize that DVD Video picture is not up to regular broadcast quality! It will look like a VHS tape on a regular TV today-- suddenly crummy. They'll want the next gen video platform (that they can record on, too) that will look as good on their TVs as regular programming does.

 

[Edwood]

I would've preferred to have seen Microsoft's WM9 HD codec get utilized more as it can work with existing DVD discs. Although the processor overhead for it is massive.

-Ed

 

[lan]

I think I need to upgrade my TV first. My projector is 540P.


It's really crazy watching 1080 material on the computer with that WM9 HD CODEC. If TVs are really like that, I would just be blown away.

 

[TimSchirmer]

Its much too soon for a format upgrade. They are probably just doing this as an excuse to weed out dvd's because they can be copied now.

 

[Nightfall]

Quote:

Originally posted by markl I have no idea if EVD will make its way to the West (probably only the Chinese know for sure), that's why I posed it as a question. Why wouldn't the Chinese want to penetrate our market with their technology? They already build most of our DVD players. Mark

Markl,

You're right, of course about them building most of the players sold here, but none that you or I, or anyone who cared about quality would buy, that I know of.


JC

 

[Nightfall]

Quote:

Originally posted by markl I agree, it's a ways off, and its too early to know how it will shape up. I merely post for entertainment and discussion. The problem will come when people switch over to HDTV. They will soon realize that DVD Video picture is not up to regular broadcast quality! It will look like a VHS tape on a regular TV today-- suddenly crummy. They'll want the next gen video platform (that they can record on, too) that will look as good on their TVs as regular programming does.

Having had a good quality HDTV for several years now, and using it regularly for both dvd viewing and HDTV reception, I can agree with the idea that if the consumers have seen OTA (over the air) HDTV broadcasts, which require a roof mounted antenna, and a seperate HDTV receiver, then yes, most DVD's dont look as sharp. However, very few people currently receive, or will receive their HDTV broadcasts in that way. Most will get their HDTV signals via cable. Having done this both ways, the cable HDTV picture is clearly inferior to OTA HDTV picture quality, and not noticeably different than a DVD. I am currently having to live with Comcast HDTV cable and am aware of this every time I watch something.
I also dont know that recording capability is all that important to the industry. Studies have repeatedly shown that less than 30% of consumers ever even use their vcrs to record. They primarily view them as a means to playback rented videotapes. This has been responsible, to a great degree, for the delays in manufacturers even bothering to design, implement, and offer for sale, recordable DVD units. Not that Hollywwod, with their illogical paranoia is helping either.
This is alla fairly complicated issue, and I agree with those who feel that the manufacturing consortiums behind DVD will, in no way, any time soon, even ponder disrupting the golden goose of standard dvd that has been making them enormous amounts of money, and is often the only real moneymaker they have going at the moment.


JC

 

[EyEPoD]

I dont believe blu-ray will be making an appearance in the U.S. any time soon. Last i read it probably wont see the light of day (if ever in the U.S.) until mid 2005.

Us foolish americans stick to a format until its bled dry, dont expect anything to surpass dvd for some time...

 

[grinch]

nothing like watching friends in hdtv..

too bad good looking crap is still crap.


blu-ray sounds pretty awesome and i'm excited for it, but current dvds can be scaled to 1080i fairly easily with a htpc, and having to re-buy my entire collection (over 360 dvds at this point) doesn't sound like fun. oh well.

i agree that cable hdtv is inferior to broadcast hdtv. another problem for me is if it rains, hdtv's signal drops out like crazy. i think they're going to have a tough time convincing consumers to all buy hdtv's when mp3s are such a big deal (i.e. quantity/ease of use over quality).

 

[elnero]

I agree with Grinch but also want to add that the reason CD and DVD took off so quickly and gained such wide acceptance, DVD even moreso than CD, was because both were replacing a tape based format (CD was also slated to replace vinyl as well but with the advent of recordable CD's the compact disc format really dealt a death blow to commercial audio tapes). In both cases the new format was clearly superior to the average user but that is not necessarily the case with Blu-Ray. It may be superior on HDTV's but how many average users have HDTV's that could take advantage of Blu-Ray at this point in time?

It's also far too soon for the industry to be introducing a new disc based video format, the average consumer just isn't going to buy into it. They've just paid for a DVD player within the last couple of years, possibly even bought quite a few DVD's. I really don't think they'll be lining up at Best Buy to purchase new Blu-Ray machines because it's putting the cart before the horse. This may change when HDTV becomes the norm but until that time I don't see Blu-Ray or any other higher rez video format making much impact in the industry.

Just my 2 cents worth, and hey the Canadian dollar is gaining ground so my 2 cents is worth more than it has in a long time.

 

[markl]

We seem to be assuming that Blu-ray players will be unable to play back standard DVDs of today. I'd be willing to bet a LOT of $$$ that they will be able to, and it *might* even be possible/conceivable that DVDs played back via a Blu-ray machine might even look better (who knows?). I don't think the industry will be eliminating the DVD any more than they "eliminated" the CD when they introduced the DVD player (obviously DVD players can play back CDs).

So, I'll get the best of both worlds-- I'll be able to go to Blockbuster and rent that new action/adventure/explosion movie in Blu-ray format, AND still be able to watch my old DVDs on my new Blu-ray machine.

The interesting issue comes in with manufacturers of DVDs (Hollywood). Will they have to release two seprate editions of the same movie, one in Blu-ray, one in DVD, or can a single disc, say a "Hybrid Blu-ray" hold *both* a regular DVD version *and* a Blu-ray hi-rez version? If not, at what point does the local video store stop stocking new DVDs and only have Blu-rays? In my local video store, you can still find VHS copies of every DVD they stock, this 6-7 years after the advent of DVD, so no, this won't happen overnight.

The US gov't has mandated that all broadcasters convert to HDTV by 2005 (IIRC) that's just around the corner. However, the transition won't really happen in people's homes any faster than the conversion between B&W vs. color. People will most likely upgrade to HDTVs only when their existing TVs are dead or dying. That will take some time.

HDTV prices are coming down much much closer to the level of regular sets. If I were in the market for a TV right now, I wouldn't consider one that wasn't at least "HDTV ready".

 

[elnero]

I'm not assuming that Blu-Ray machines won't be able to playback regular DVD's although it may be unlikely. I may be off on that as I haven't read much Blu-Ray info recently but if I remember correctly when it was first announced there was speculation that they wouldn't be backwards compatible.

Regardless of backwards compatibility though, my main point is I don't think the average person will be rushing out to buy a new machine that will only show benefits when used with the latest TV's. I'm all for higher rez and better technology but I just don't realistically see it taking off in the same way DVD did. It's more likely to be a struggling format like SACD or DVD-A that may or may not catch on in time but that would depend on HDTV's becoming more accessible in price and no other superior format being introduced in the interim to give it time to catch on.

We also have to take into account how much difference the average user will be able to detect. My brother said he couldn't see any real difference between video tapes and DVD. I find that a bit far fetched but it did make me think that if the differences are that minimal to some people then the difference between DVD's and Blu-Ray may not make much of a difference to all but the most discriminating users, again similar to SACD and DVD-A.

Markl does pose an interesting problem with video stores. Just think of the mess if there are two seperate disc versions. Unless the Blu-Ray versions are easily distinguisable from the DVD version there is going to be a hell of a lot of confusion. Also how many video stores will give up valuable space to yet another format which means they would most likely have to stock three versions of new releases because as much as DVD has been widely adopted there is still a significant videotape user base.

Now if Blu-Ray is backwards compatible and as Mark suggested video rentals on a single hybrid DVD/Blu-Ray disc, HDTV prices drop significantly to dominate TV sales and all the planets align then Blu-Ray may stand a chance. Actually the really big factors would be machines that are backwards compatible and hybrid discs.