Did the Mac Mini just take a huge bite out of the Wintel HTPC market?

[Wodgy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Graz Good discussion & you make good points. I have to wonder about your quote above though...it would be interesting to see the numbers & some real data. My own hunch is that Media Center PC's only reflect a relatively small percentage of all folks using Wintel for HTPC...so I guess my thinking is sort of the opposite of your thinking.

I must say that I don't really have a good handle on the motivations people have for assembling HTPCs. I understand the idea of building a music server. That makes a lot of sense to me, since you avoid having to search around for CDs and you can listen to your library in all sorts of interesting ways.

But beyond that, I'm not sure I understand the motivation for building an HTPC. Part of it is wanting to watch DVDs, but wouldn't a DVD player just be simpler? The idea that I'm going to need to do maintenance chores like running Ad-Aware and Spybot every so often on my "DVD player" just doesn't appeal to me. I don't see how it really makes any sense, though I can see how it could appeal to the geek mindset. Similarly, part of the HTPC motivation is PVR-like tasks, but wouldn't a standalone PVR just be simpler? Don't people shy away from the idea that they'll have to install a virus checker and apply regular security updates to their "PVR"? Then there's the expense and trouble of finding a machine that's both powerful enough for this stuff and quiet and reasonably appealing for the living room.

This is basically why I think Media Center PCs are not selling in big volumes. People just don't want the hassle. I can imagine people sighing and thinking "man, now I have to worry about backups and spyware and paying for Windows upgrades and all this other computer stuff in my living room?" To what advantage? What really are the concrete advantages over a generic DVD player and PVR? Are there any?

People talk about things like having a digital library of DVDs and distributing them electronically to various rooms in their house, but this seems like a niche activity to me, more "cool" than practical. I understand it for music, but for movies? Can't you just go downstairs and pick up the DVD and slip it into whatever player is in your current room?

The HTPC concept seems like it could gain traction with music, because that application makes a lot of sense. The Mac Mini is perfect here, especially in conjunction with the Airport Express. But the rest of it? It seems to me that video-centric HTPC and Media Center PCs will remain largely a fringe geek preoccupation until some practical motivation emerges.

 

[Graz]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3lusiv3 I thought Apple was in the top five PC companies?

Nope...worldwide Apple PC market share just barely cracks the top 10....6th in the US.

See here:
http://www.macobserver.com/article/2004/10/29.6.shtml

Mac sales sales may have been over 1 million units last quarter as you say, but to put that into perspective, HP sells around 2 million notebook PC's per quarter.

I would respectfully disagree that "...Apple itself, is instrumental to driving the whole technology industry." I think that's overstating things a little. In my workplace, I don't see any evidence of us looking to Apple as the example of technology that we should follow.

With respect to seeing low market share as a negative...the one place it can play against the consumer or prospective buyer is with price. Companies that enjoy higher market share get the best pricing with the top tier ODM's in Taiwan & China (Foxconn is not one of the top tier PC ODM's...Quanta & Compal are numbers 1 & 2 respectively). This advantage in economies of scale ultimately translates to lower costs for the consumer. Additionally, the companies that are enjoying the higher market shares generally have more capital on hand to fuel R&D (not that that money is always spent wisely).

Lastly, I wanted to point out that the article above pretty clearly states that strong iPod sales haven't created any type of halo effect that has translated into stronger Mac sales. One could extrapolate that it won't translate into strong Mini sales either...but obviously this is debatable...we'll see how it plays out.

This article is pretty interesting too:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1745930,00.asp

Peace,

Graz

Edit for above...I have misstated that Quanta & Compal were the number 1 & 2 PC ODM's in Taiwan/China. These two companies are numbers 1 & 2 in notebook PC's (the part of the business I'm most familiar with). I honestly don't know who the top desktop PC ODM's are...Foxconn may in fact be one of them.

 

[Tim D]

Xvid and Divx and other encodings have become pretty popular, however I'm not so sure that the most practical motivation is alltogether legal. But hey that didn't stop the popularity of the iPod did it? Just slap on the do not steal movies sticker and ship the thing out!

On the otherhand Xvid and Divx stuff should be easy on the Mac Mini, so I'm not sure what the heavy demand or motivation is for all the HDTV quality encodings??

 

[devwild]

I think divx will become more legittly popular as video downloads become popular. Divx the company certainly got its fingers out there first in this department.

And the nature of the common use of divx hasn't stopped the popularity of Divx capable DVD players either (though now they play most any mpeg4 codec... divx, opendivx, xvid, wmv, quicktime...)

Also, speaking of HTPCs, Divx is used pretty widely in the home-brew variety. A 600 meg Divx is a heck of a lot nicer to keep around than a 2 gig mpeg2.

Of course Apple wants to see its new quicktime codec and an iMovies Video Store, and Microsoft wants the wmv codecs and a Windows Media Video Store equivalent.

 

[MikoLayer]

devwild, you sound like you seem to have more knowledge in computer related AV than anyone else in this thread. and thus is my question : what is your stance on divx vs xvid vs wmv9? i read an article on doom9 favoring xvid, but out of ~450GB i have, over half of it is wmv9; i have been told time and again wmv9 in general has better quality at the cost of higher cpu power. please comment on how you feel about these encoding schemes. some higher quality codecs i have seen are ogm or mkv based, tho IIRC they only differ in the audio department.

 

[3lusiv3]

Quote:

Originally Posted by devwild Of course Apple wants to see its new quicktime codec

QuickTime isn't really a codec. It's more of a wrapper that supports lots of codecs. Most codecs are supported by QuickTime, although some new ones or windows media or real, for example, are not supported. The "default" QuickTime codecs are MPEG-4 video and mp4a for audio, which is basically the ISO standard MPEG-4 format.

 

[devwild]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikoLayer devwild, you sound like you seem to have more knowledge in computer related AV than anyone else in this thread. and thus is my question : what is your stance on divx vs xvid vs wmv9? i read an article on doom9 favoring xvid, but out of ~450GB i have, over half of it is wmv9; i have been told time and again wmv9 in general has better quality at the cost of higher cpu power. please comment on how you feel about these encoding schemes. some higher quality codecs i have seen are ogm or mkv based, tho IIRC they only differ in the audio department.

I prefer Divx/XviD over WMV mainly because WMV encoding support usually wraps through windows media encoder to a WMV file, leaving me stuck with WMA audio, which my ears still don't care for as of 9 particularly when recompressed from compressed audio (the mpeg 2 output of my PVR). With Divx/Xvid compressed to an AVI, I can use any codec/quality/multi-channel I want, or I can leave it as the original audio.

Also, Divx/XviD play nicer with other operating systems, such as OSX, which I also use. (WMP for OSX is icky

)

I prefer Divx over XviD mainly because it is more widely supported by third party software (such as my PVR). Also, XviD is updated frequently, which means I've had to update frequently to view friends' content. This is particularly annoying with XviD since they refuse to distribute their own binaries, and the common installers made by others don't always work right, meaning installing/uninstalling the codec multiple times. What good is a codec you can't install?

Plus, I've used Divx so long I know all the settings I like.

As far as performance/appearance goes, they are close enough that I think you should go by personal preference, ease of use, and intended viewing. A tiny bit better picture isn't going to make up for hours/days of frustration.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3lusiv3 QuickTime isn't really a codec. It's more of a wrapper that supports lots of codecs.

I actually realize this, avi is the same way (and ogm from the ogg folks, etc.). There are also some codecs which are Quicktime specific like the Sorenson codec. In this case I was referring to Apple's touted support of the new H.264 hi-def codec.

Edit: And more importantly, if media distributed by them uses iTMS-like DRM, it will only play in Apple-provided software/hardware, which is what they want.

 

[MikoLayer]

hmmm... then what are these files with names like blahblah(wmv640x480LAMEVBR).avi? a good bit of my recent downloads are of this variety. i guess it all depends on how you encode and what the source is, but in my expeirence quality goes xvid>divx5.11>divx5.02. i could be wrong tho

 

[devwild]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikoLayer hmmm... then what are these files with names like blahblah(wmv640x480LAMEVBR).avi?

You *can* do it, but the PVR programs and other applications I've used/liked the most only do windows media through WME. You can take most any codec that uses the standard Windows API interfaces and make an AVI out of it using the proper software... like mentioned in the above message, AVI is just a header standard for bringing your media together.

I agree with you assessment of qualities, but I find the differences marginal, expecially if you actually utilize Divx's full feature set and don't trust the three prefab quality settings. Also, some codecs are better at different bitrates because of differences in optimization, so what works better on a desktop may not be better for a PocketPC, or scaled to HD resolutions. So I just choose whatever works.

 

[AdamWill]

devwild: "This is particularly annoying with XviD since they refuse to distribute their own binaries"

It's not exactly that they refuse to, they'd probably like to. It's that they don't feel they *can*. Xvid may well infringe on software patents held by other companies; if they release binaries, they can be sued. Interestingly, in US law it's held that source code by itself can't infringe a patent - it's considered to be the software analogue to a blueprint (which are considered not to violate mechanical patents). So they're in the same situation as LAME, who don't distribute official encoding binaries either. On Linux it's no big deal as there's reliable and well-updated packages available, but yeah, I've noticed that the unofficial builds for Windows tend to...suck.

 

[loveheadphones]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wodgy The idea that I'm going to need to do maintenance chores like running Ad-Aware and Spybot every so often on my "DVD player" just doesn't appeal to me. I don't see how it really makes any sense, though I can see how it could appeal to the geek mindset. Similarly, part of the HTPC motivation is PVR-like tasks, but wouldn't a standalone PVR just be simpler? Don't people shy away from the idea that they'll have to install a virus checker and apply regular security updates to their "PVR"?

Just don't connect to the internet

(half joking, half.. well.. I don't have my HTPC hooked up to the internet)

 

[devwild]

My HTPC is not only on the internet (though not directly), I use it as a secure remote access box. Most of the "geek mindset" don't enjoy cleaning their boxes all the time either... but they don't get the spyware and adware to begin with. It's not that hard to avoid.

 

[Magsy]

A large part of the market are using htpc's with high end kit, if avsforum is anything to go by. My 'home theater pc' is actually part of a home theater!

Mine is for dvd/divx/wm9 etc, scaled to high res, processed and then output to projector. My current SN45G with XP3200 is on its limits processor wise most of the time.

You have hidef content, be it mpeg2 or wm9, wm9@1080p is a killer.

I also scale live tv via svideo with dscaler, again very cpu intensive.

divx vs xvid vs wm9 is a hard agument, I don't think there are any clear winners because they are so close. More important is the skill of the person who made the encode imo. For some of us standard shop bought DVD quality isn't enough, let alone a '2cd rip'

 

[Wodgy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by devwild My HTPC is not only on the internet (though not directly), I use it as a secure remote access box. Most of the "geek mindset" don't enjoy cleaning their boxes all the time either... but they don't get the spyware and adware to begin with. It's not that hard to avoid.

Yeah, I don't generally have spyware problems either, but most recent studies I've seen suggest that between 60% and 90% (depending on the source) of home computers are infected with spyware. This is a real issue in consumers' minds.

I've had two "wakeup calls" on this. The second one was when I bought a new laptop, wiped the hard drive, installed Windows XP off a genuine product CD, didn't connect to the Internet, brought the machine to work and immediately went to WindowsUpdate and started downloading Windows updates. Twenty five minutes later I get an email from IT telling me that my machine has been compromised and is flooding the network with traffic. This was literally after only 25 minutes on the net, and the various Windows updates had not even all finished downloading yet. Since then, I ordered an SP2 CD and always install it prior to connecting a machine to the net, but really, with situations like this, you can't blame the problem on consumer stupidity or ignorance or inadequate precautions.

Anyway, I know this kind of experience and much worse is common, and it seems to me that it's probably the biggest stumbling block in getting people to embrace the HTPC concept and buy these machines for their living rooms.

The other major stumbling block is, of course, lack of motivation. I guess I'm surprised to hear that the main motivation for HTPCs apart from music seems to be playing DivX movies??? This just doesn't seem like a very mainstream activity to me. I do know a guy who likes to download anime movies in DivX, but I always thought that was because they were difficult or expensive to obtain here. Pirating mainstream movies just seems pretty uber geek to me. Does anyone know any "regular" people over the age of 22 who spend their time doing this?

 

[devwild]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wodgy Yeah, I don't generally have spyware problems either, but most recent studies I've seen suggest that between 60% and 90% (depending on the source) of home computers are infected with spyware. This is a real issue in consumers' minds.

Yep, and despite what I said, I'd lean towards the 90% direction. Spyware and Adware feeds on the ignorance and gullibility of human beings, and considering 2-4 people, including kids, use most home computers, there's a lot of easy targets. I can name several non-technical families in which the child did the damage, not the parent, due to a desire for pretty screensavers, cursors, and messenger "extensions". At work we have people downloading those adware programs that tout themselves as removal tools.

If you understand OSX and unix security, there is nothing except for small market share stopping adware from showing up on macs. (Again, I'm a mac user, I'm not bashing macs) There is no need for root access or web browser holes to trick people into doing serious damage. My personal feeling is the only thing that will make a difference in the long run is changes in legal policy or a massive increase of the human race's IQ, and unfortunately, there is no good way either of those will happen.

The other problem you describe is the problem of worm infection caused by the fact that so many people out there still haven't patched for sasser and the like. It is a serious problem. For home users, a simple broadband router will generally (you're never entirely safe from the world) protect them from this kind of attack, so at least you can get patched. Unfortunately, many corporate networks have problems with these things due to poor planning and network management. Even without traditional firewalls this can be prevented, but requires proper planning and equipment (meaning money and time, and much of that only if it was spent 5-15 years ago in planning stages

)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wodgy I guess I'm surprised to hear that the main motivation for HTPCs apart from music seems to be playing DivX movies???

For me it's Divx playback from compressed PVR recording, both mine and friends. Basically, the same as we did when we were in high school with VHS tapes. If DVD-ripping wasn't so pseudo-legal, you'd probably see divx jukebox machines starting to show up for people with large dvd collections, effectively for the same reason as iTunes/WMP/Musicmatch. As is, it's too cumbersome for most people.

There are a *lot* of people pirating movies out there these days, young and old. I don't think the market should be directly catered to, but it does exist, and it's going to be a common use of current HTPCs whether you agree with it or not. Bittorrent has become the highest traffic generator on the net in the past year, and most of that traffic is in video of some form or another. (like every other form of traffic on the net, probably mostly **** Edit: um, adult stuff)

Yes, I've downloaded anime from time to time too. It's been extremely hard to get good anime until recent years in the states. Luckily, that's improving, and unlike die-hards, I am happy with most English dubs. I suggest some of it even to people who think anime is dumb, because there is material coming out of japan of higher caliper than the movies from hollywood. You just have to pick and choose, cause there is a lot of really bad stuff too.

One of the downsides of being a sysadmin is seeing the amazingly powerful effects of the negative side of human existence on technology. Granted the technology gets better as a result usually.

OK, this discussion has gotten too philosophical now, I'm going back to doing some head-fi appropriate activities (listening to music with my headphones

).