Anyone follow this story on the bird flu??
Oct 25, 2005 at 12:28 PM Post #16 of 30
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that this is just the media blowing something else out of proportion.


I agree. Mankind is and always has been a hair away from some sort of natural disaster but today's media is big business and fear has always been a good attention getter. I don't doubt there's always a possibility of this disease mutating into something more dangerous, but it hasn't done-so yet.

Right now, I'm more worried about the birds. West Nile Virus has made us declare war on the mosquito population. I'm wondering what happens to the birds, fish, and amphibians that depend on mosquitoes and mosquito larvae as their food supply once we practically eradicate mosquitoes. Now they are talking about ( and actually starting to ) "culling" bird flocks. Culling is a kinder, gentler word for slaughtering. If this new virus ever does mutate, I shudder to think what will happen to the world's bird population.

I don't know what the answer is, (developing an effective human ( and even bird) vaccine is my guess) but the thought of exterminating huge numbers of animals as a means of human disease control is a little scary.
 
Oct 25, 2005 at 12:50 PM Post #18 of 30
Today at school I was given a sheet of paper to record my body temperature on twice a day and report back to the school. The reason?
Bird Flu

It seems, at least here in Taiwan, it's not only the media anticipating it anymore. This also comes after Taiwan's announcement to start producing patented DNA vaccines [against the patent-holder's will] to protect the people

If this thing breaks out I'll be on the plane back to the states in a matter of days. Pray it doesn't
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Oct 25, 2005 at 2:14 PM Post #19 of 30
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Originally Posted by Big D
Also the flu would have to mutate to allow human to human transmission. Who's to say that the strain won't become less virulent as a result? Sadly we are due a flu epidemic as we haven't had one for a few years. Please don't jump on the inevitable media bandwagon of everyone dying. This is a normal cyclical process that happens every 3-5 years.


Flu mutate? that's it's modus operandi
The less virulent mutations, while more numerous, are irrelevant
We are not worried about the normal cyclical variations, this is more of the pandemic type of worry. Everyone dies in those, young, old, strong- read up on 1918.
 
Oct 25, 2005 at 9:37 PM Post #20 of 30
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Originally Posted by raisin
Flu mutate? that's it's modus operandi
The less virulent mutations, while more numerous, are irrelevant
We are not worried about the normal cyclical variations, this is more of the pandemic type of worry. Everyone dies in those, young, old, strong- read up on 1918.


I am well aware of the pandemic in 1918. It still predominantly killed the elderly and young rather than fit and well adults. It did however kill more fit and well adults than a normal strain of the virus would have. There are others things to consider too, like living conditions, sanitation and medical facilities, which have change markedly over the last 90 years.

My point was that there is a good chance that flu will kill more people this year due to the fact we are due an epidemic, rather than avian flu per se.

Pandemics do occur and are natural phenomena. I would also reiterate the point that if avian flu mutates to become easily transmissible between humans, who's to say that it won't result in a less virulent strain?
 
Oct 26, 2005 at 12:57 AM Post #21 of 30
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Originally Posted by jpburton5150
If this thing breaks out I'll be on the plane back to the states in a matter of days. Pray it doesn't
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Although enviornmental changes, as you mention, have improved markedly in almost 100 years, we still live in a "third world" planet. The biggest change (negative) is illustrated by the post above. The virus will travel by car, truck, jet, and fedex, and this is why i'm afraid that a vaccine will come to late to help. A virulent, readily contagious flu virus will flash point across the planet in a matter of months. (just like the movies)
 
Oct 26, 2005 at 7:32 AM Post #23 of 30
Quote:

Originally Posted by raisin
Although enviornmental changes, as you mention, have improved markedly in almost 100 years, we still live in a "third world" planet. The biggest change (negative) is illustrated by the post above. The virus will travel by car, truck, jet, and fedex, and this is why i'm afraid that a vaccine will come to late to help. A virulent, readily contagious flu virus will flash point across the planet in a matter of months. (just like the movies)


The influenza virus cannot be transmitted like you suggest (Fedex - really?!). It is transmitted from organism to organism by close contact as it is transmitted in repiratory droplets that sneezed/coughed out of the infected person and are inhaled by the person contracting the disease. The avian flu strain is not highly contagious, but is more virulent than normal flu. We humans are killing more chickens to protect ourselves than avian flu has done in the past few years.

The flu vaccines in current use are not that effective at reducing mortality during a seasonal outbreak. EDIT - This is great publicity for the makers of Tamiflu as everyone wants their shot. I suspect I will have it, but purely because I would be expected to treat those with the disease and I am likely to get far more exposure to the disease than the general population, who are unlikely to benefit from vaccination. I still feel that the potential mortality from an avian flu outbreak is being overhyped, particularly when you compare to heart and lung disease which continue to kill over 100,000 each in the UK alone.
 
Oct 26, 2005 at 12:49 PM Post #24 of 30
Certainly, normal flu needs p/p contact, but i'm clearly stating worst case SCENARIOS here, and prolonged or hardy infectiousness is not out of the question.
In my first post, i mentioned reports that the strain under observation has already developed some resistance to tamiflu, and the other flu aplicable anti-viral. What happens if our medical personnel have no recourse to infection? How strong is the Hippocratic Oath?
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Oct 26, 2005 at 4:48 PM Post #26 of 30
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Originally Posted by Big D
What we're going to get is a disease that is easily transmissible and has a 100% mortality rate!
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Yea, we got that already- it's called Life!
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