[Towert7]

Lots of people like to speculate about possible price drops on new products, and I have received a lot of feedback in the HD800 thread. So much that it warrants a new thread.

Some have said that production will be slow on the HD800. Some have said that sennheiser will try and control prices by limiting their dealers. Hoswollop I say!

I know sennheiser likes to toot their own horn about the fancy materials they use, but I would suspect that each HD800 costs ~150-200$ to make [all things included].

The only two things that will determine street price are: (A) How nice they sound, build quality, aesthetics, comfort, etc and (B) Demand / Interest.

All of the recent open production headphones from sennheisers start at their MSRP and then fall off to about 50% of MSRP. This is an across the board trend, from audiophile headphones, to budget, to portable, to midrange consumer headphones. Some faster than others dependent on factors (A) and (B) from above.

It has been Said that to combat this, sennheiser has significantly increased the MSRP of the HD800 so as to account for this 50% drop. This is wise. That is, to me, the same as them saying they are expecting to sell these for about 700$ each. The fact that people are willing to shell out 1400$ for them so soon is just money to their ears. Cha-Ching$$$ If they released these with an MSRP of 1000$, or worse yet, 800$, they might be looking at future sales around 400-500$.

Where most people so far have disagreed with me is in the timespan for the HD800 to reach their street price of 700$us.
I think demand for the HD800 has been filled, give or take a few, but interest is still high. I would expect a 1000$ street price within a year. I would then expect 50-100$ decreases over the next year or two until they level off at ~700$. Just as the price of the HD650 has done.

People on this board have said I'm dreaming, others have said I'll only get the HD800 for 700$ in poor condition, but I laugh at their short sidedness. That fact is the HD800 is a full production headphone that is a upgrade to the HD600/HD650. The only difference is that sennheiser was smart this time and listed the HD800 MSRP at a sky high 1400$ to account for the 50% street price reduction that is sure to come.

Care to disagree? Agree?

 

[jenneth]

It's plausible, but Sennheiser might do what Ultrasone & Grado (and others) have been doing all these years and sell their HPs at the MRSP. I'm hoping that they'll drop below $1k, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[ferraro25]

This is more reasonable than what I thought you were saying, but I doubt even the "down to $1000 within a year" guess. We'll see.

 

[nor_spoon]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Towert7 /img/forum/go_quote.gif It has been Said that to combat this, sennheiser has significantly increased the MSRP of the HD800 so as to account for this 50% drop.

I am curious, where did you get this information? I can't recall to have read it anywhere.

 

[Towert7]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nor_spoon /img/forum/go_quote.gif I am curious, where did you get this information? I can't recall to have read it anywhere.

Darn, I'll have to dig through the initial 2 threads. It's either in Tyll's post or Jude's. Let me dig around a bit and I'll see if I can find it.

 

[smeggy]

It's not a limited edition, it's a limited distribution phone that can be easily tracked and Senn will happily cut off supply to any company that doesn't tow the price line.

When you have a very small list of retailers selling them, keeping them in line is relatively easy. Exclusivity is a powerful weapon. These aren't a mass produced free for all like the others. These are also about making a statement. I'm sure a cheaper mass-market version will appear in a year or two for everyone else.

I wouldn't hold my breath for any deep discounts.

 

[nor_spoon]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Towert7 /img/forum/go_quote.gif Darn, I'll have to dig through the initial 2 threads. It's either in Tyll's post or Jude's. Let me dig around a bit and I'll see if I can find it.

Ok. Thank you.

 

[pabbi1]

I think your argument would be more valid IFF you included Sennheisers ACTUAL pricing behavior on HE90/HEV90 or even the HE60. That is really more what is likely to happen vs lower end product pricing.

Oh, and some time line by year what the pricing behavior was, especially on HD600 and HD650.

Sure, you are likely to see some price negotiation over the years, but I suspect (and that is all anyone can do at this point) is that MSRP holds for at least a year, and possibly 2. Afterall, we are looking at world demand, and a LOT of other competitors might be squeezed out with this (Ultrasone, anyone?).

I'll be letting the hd650 go when the hd800 is here, but keeping my hd600. So, the used market will be a little more active, but with current volumes, doubtful it will be noticeable.

 

[Wmcmanus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Towert7 /img/forum/go_quote.gif Care to disagree? Agree?

Disagree.

But in any event, I don't think its "short sighted" for someone to buy a pair of headphones for:

1) a price that they can afford, and that

2) they feel is justified based on the utility they subjectively expect to derive from the product, and then

3) use those headphones for an indeterminable number of years, before

4) the value of those headphones may (or may not) decline to some indeterminable (but supposedly lower) price.

I don't think that many (if any) of the HD800 owners will have those gut wrenching "Gee, I'm feeling short sighted" thoughts running through their heads as they listen to their appropriately priced headphones (from their perspective and therefore the market's perspective) while others (I guess you would call them the long sighted non-HD800 owners) patiently wait for this magical 50% market adjustment to occur. I suspect, instead, that the thoughts running through the HD800 (initial) owners' heads will be more along the lines of, "Dang! I've heard this album 100 times but never quite like what I'm hearing now before!"

Of course, I could be wrong. I might end up being short sighted by not seeing the price drop that some view as inevitable. But I'll also be short sounded, in the sense that I'll be grooving to the sounds of the HD800 in the short run as well. Yeah! Go team take it on faith, and forget the rest!

Ok. I'll butt out now. I've expressed my views about this point in at least one other thread as well. I'm not going to try to convince anyone that I'll be "right" about this because no matter how you look at it, what we're talking about is pure speculation (as the title to this thread reads).

 

[Towert7]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nor_spoon /img/forum/go_quote.gif I am curious, where did you get this information? I can't recall to have read it anywhere.

It took me an hour looking through 40 pages, but I finally found it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyll The price will be $1399.95. Sennheiser (and many high-end product manufacturers) have come to realize how important it is for a products success to not be heavily discounted. It cheapens the perceived value of the product, and it doesn't allow for the competent sales effort needed to help customers understand the values of the product during the sales process, and to properly service customers after the sale. There will be about 10 or fewer places where these cans can be purchased. HeadRoom is one of these, and the order we placed today puts us number one in line for HD800s arriving in the US.

Taken from http://www.head-fi.org/forums/5262167-post1.html

I'm not sure if that is in reference to the limited dealers or the high MSRP. I took it as meaning both.

 

[Towert7]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pabbi1 /img/forum/go_quote.gif I think your argument would be more valid IFF you included Sennheisers ACTUAL pricing behavior on HE90/HEV90 or even the HE60. That is really more what is likely to happen vs lower end product pricing.

I wish I could! Sadly, I was not around when the HE60/HE90 were sold, so I have no knowledge of how they sold and what price fluctuations (if any) occurred.

So you think the HD800 will be similar to the HE60/HE90 which were limited production?

Hm. Maybe it will be somewhere in between. Not limited production, but not mass released? Grado marketing? That would be interesting if that's what really happened. My gut tells me it'll be like the HD650 (if that means production gets shifted to Ireland or whatnot).

 

[nor_spoon]

Towert7: Thanks for finding it, but I still take what Tyll writes as the opposite of what you are saying about Sennheiser taking into account the 50% price drop, which still would be a heavy discount.

From Tyll:
"Sennheiser (and many high-end product manufacturers) have come to realize how important it is for a products success to not be heavily discounted."

I might be thick though, and it is getting late.

 

[zotjen]

Quote:

I know sennheiser likes to toot their own horn about the fancy materials they use, but I would suspect that each HD800 costs ~150-200$ to make [all things included].

I would find this quite hard to believe, especially if they are hand made. Not including the cost of R&D, if you take into consideration parts, labor, packaging, shipping, marketing, etc. I can't imagine they would only cost $150.

 

[IceClass]

Quote:

Originally Posted by smeggy /img/forum/go_quote.gif It's not a limited edition, it's a limited distribution phone that can be easily tracked and Senn will happily cut off supply to any company that doesn't tow the price line. When you have a very small list of retailers selling them, keeping them in line is relatively easy. Exclusivity is a powerful weapon. These aren't a mass produced free for all like the others. These are also about making a statement. I'm sure a cheaper mass-market version will appear in a year or two for everyone else. I wouldn't hold my breath for any deep discounts.

Conversely could the HD800 be trading on the FS forum for more than it cost new in a year's time?

 

[lmilhan]

I agree. I think they will drop pretty significantly from the $1399 MSRP. If I had to make a guess, I would guess that they will settle in at the $900ish mark. I don't have a guess as to how long that may take before we see those types of prices though. We shall see.

In the meantime, maybe I will go and post a "WTB Sennheiser HD800" in the for sale thread. I might be able to save a few hundred bucks and jump on the first wave of "For Sale" threads that will inevitably pop up soon after the release of a hyped up new headphone...