Blasted hurricanes!
Aug 28, 2008 at 5:34 AM Thread Starter Post #1 of 28

Wmcmanus

President treasurer secretary and sole member of the Cayman Islands Head-Fi Club.
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One of the drawbacks of living in the Caribbean (besides the high cost of living and no decent roads to drive fast on) is hurricane season! The Cayman Islands got clobbered hard (Cat 5) by Hurricane Ivan in September 2004. We're talking $5 billion of damage in Grand Cayman, an Island with only 50,000 residents (or $100,000 per person: man woman and child). Of course a lot of that was corporate and governmental, but suffice it to say, it was a pretty nasty scene and a lot of people literally lost everything they had ever worked for. My property damage was comparatively slight and well insured, but that didn't help much when living in the midst of 6+ months of utter despair during the aftermath.

Hurricane Gustov, which has already taken 22 lives, is now heading our way, although at the moment the National Hurricane Center (US) is predicting about a 10% chance of hurricane force winds (presumably somewhere in the Cat 1-3 range at this point) and a 50-60% chance of tropical storm force winds. It's hard saying what will happen in the next 24-48 hours, but everyone is apparently scrambling to make preparations. Gustov is expected to reach Grand Cayman and our two sister islands at around 2pm on Friday local time.

I'm in Idaho at the moment, so I'm safe. I don't know about my peeps and my stuff though. Time will tell... but to think, it's still August!

...

BTW (side topic), I've got to laugh when I see the "official" descriptions (from the US Government) about the various categories of hurricanes: Hurricane Categories Information

When Ivan hit Grand Cayman, the entire Eastern and Southern shores were obliterated. It was registered initially as a Cat 5 hurricane, but then reregistered several months later as a Cat 4 because the maximum recorded sustained winds were 154 mph (instead of 155 mph) up until the point that the building that the recording equipment was housed in blew away!

I've got some friends who (back then) owned a breathtaking two-story house on the sea at Pedro's Bluff, which is the highest point on the Island, 40 feet above sea level. The bluff drops 40' straight down to sea level. Many local kids jump off, swim around, and get picked up their friends in boats. Anyway, my friends' former house sits atop the bluff about 100 yards back. They had sea water in their second floor bedrooms (some 55 above sea level)! Everything in their first floor, including all of their furniture, their fridge, etc., was washed away. Yet, according to the "official" sources, at Cat 4 hurricane gives storm surges of 13-18 feet above normal (and normal there would be about 6 feet). Hmmm... something isn't adding up in that official data.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 5:41 AM Post #2 of 28
I feel your pain since Fay was originally supposed to hit us with winds over 73 mph. Up until I shuttered up the place and finished gathering all my supplies. Then it avoided us like the plague!
biggrin.gif
Hope Gustov behaves the same for you!
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 5:10 PM Post #4 of 28
They suck. It's interesting to hear from a Caribbean view point.

It's not even in the Gulf and regular grade gas is already out in many gas stations around the New Orleans area.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 5:56 PM Post #5 of 28
Fay only dumped a little over 20 inches of rain on us, so that wasn't so bad.'

...our Son tied his john boat up at our side porch safely UP the driveway when he stopped by for a visit one rainy evening.

'04 was the worst; we evacuated three times. Any evacs this year would really be a bummer. In '04 all I took was my Speakers; this year I'll also have to take my headphones and a new guitar.

....I think we'll still have to take the kids.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 6:00 PM Post #6 of 28
Hopefully 'Gustov' passes by without any major damage, or lives taken.
Take care!
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Aug 28, 2008 at 6:03 PM Post #7 of 28
Quote:

Originally Posted by krmathis /img/forum/go_quote.gif
Hopefully 'Gustov' passes by without any major damage, or lives taken.
Take care!
biggrin.gif



I'm coming to your house, Krmathis, if I have to evacuate. I hope you like cats and beer.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 6:15 PM Post #8 of 28
Quote:

Originally Posted by Samgotit /img/forum/go_quote.gif
I'm coming to your house, Krmathis, if I have to evacuate. I hope you like cats and beer.


You're most welcome!
normal_smile .gif

No like cats (allergic), but love beer (always 6-12 in the fridge).
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 6:30 PM Post #9 of 28
Quote:

Originally Posted by krmathis /img/forum/go_quote.gif
You're most welcome!
normal_smile .gif

No like cats (allergic), but love beer (always 6-12 in the fridge).



Oh well, it would have been a hoot, K. The cat is a deal breaker.
wink.gif


I think Mickey Manus is up Idaho way. That's far enough. I'm sure he's got room in the RV for me and the cat. I'm just concerned he'll grab my balls and yell "Joyeux Noël" when he meets me.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 6:41 PM Post #10 of 28
Quote:

Originally Posted by Samgotit /img/forum/go_quote.gif
I think Mickey Manus is up Idaho way. That's far enough. I'm sure he's got room in the RV for me and the cat. I'm just concerned he'll grab my balls and yell "Joyeux Noël" when he meets me.


not one part of that sentence makes any sense whatsoever.

anyway, back to the point, hope everything is allright for you, and let us know how it went.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 7:23 PM Post #11 of 28
Well, the news for Grand Cayman has gotten a little worse since last night. Now about a 75% chance of tropical storm force winds (as opposed to 50% last night) and 30% chance of hurricane (as opposed to 10-15% last night).

Gustov is now tracking directly over Grand Cayman (as opposed to 100+ miles North last night), so that's probably the worst part. It's hitting Jamaica now and has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (just short of the 75 mph to be classified as Cat 1 hurricane level). It's moving along at only 5 mph which isn't good either.

It should pick up some speed both in terms of maximum sustained winds (a bad thing) and lateral movement (a good thing) when it reaches the open water between Jamaica and Grand Cayman. The main problem there is that the water temps are extremely high in that region at the moment, which is a main factor that leads to both the intensification of sustained winds and the centralization of the mass.

So by the time it makes in to Grand Cayman (early evening on Friday) it may be at Cat 2 level (over 100 mph) or possibly even Cat 3. We're still hoping not, but only time will tell.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 10:10 PM Post #12 of 28
Gustav has the conditions for being a record-breaking storm after it wallops the Grand Caymans. I was on Sanibel Island, FL for the past three days and the Gulf water temperature is around 90 degrees. While I always feel for folks in the islands, I am really frightened for anyone on the mainland US that takes this one straight on. Often, storms lose steam over land bodies like Haiti, Cuba, Puerto Rico, etc. But, after leaving Cuba and heading into the Gulf of Mexico, there is nothing to retard the strengthening of a storm before landfall. And yes, I have been through three hurricanes in the past four years and feel for the folks in their path.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 10:33 PM Post #13 of 28
I personally say " oh well" to it all. No sense in me sweating over something I can't control WHAT SO EVER. All you can do is be prepared, and hope your home owners insurance policy is up to date.

Why other Floridians sweat a hurricane is beyond me. Especially the ones who've lived here their entire lives.

Yeah, it sucks. I was out of power for 26 hours when Faye blew through here and took a crap on Florida by going 2 mph over Gainesville...but seriously, there was nothing I could do about it. Difference is, this time around, we have a generator if we decide/can stick it out.

I ALWAYS have some sorrow for the people in the islands, cause they get BLASTED everytime, weak storm or not....suck. As with all things, it comes at a price.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 11:01 PM Post #14 of 28
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wmcmanus /img/forum/go_quote.gif
They had sea water in their second floor bedrooms (some 55 above sea level)! Everything in their first floor, including all of their furniture, their fridge, etc., was washed away. Yet, according to the "official" sources, at Cat 4 hurricane gives storm surges of 13-18 feet above normal (and normal there would be about 6 feet). Hmmm... something isn't adding up in that official data.


You aren't saying there was a 55 foot surge are you? ...or were there waves which reached that high?

I'm a hurricane freak, or rather geek so I love watching these things! It was amazing how Katrina blew up into a monster after it left the West coast of Florida, a classic saw blade from space. Of course it lost a good bit of strength as it approached shore but that same thing could happen with Gustav as it enters into the Gulf of Mexico.


It looks like the Caymans will get hit by an intensifying Category 1 hurricane on Friday.

The GFDL is currently predicting a landfall Monday morning near the Alabama/Mississippi border as a Category 2 hurricane; the HWRF is predicting a Category 3 storm making landfall in central Louisiana, on Tuesday morning.
 
Aug 28, 2008 at 11:09 PM Post #15 of 28
Good luck, I feel for ya'. I sat through Jean in '04. I was in Sebastian, FL helping my Mom clean up after Francis which had blown through 3 weeks before. jean was a cat 3, that was scary enough.

Enjoy Idaho, I just returned from a week in Ketchum.
 

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