From everything that I've seen and head in the media about this unfolding drama, I can't see Martha Stewart serving jail time. It seems impossible to me because she has all of the determination and financial resources necessary to avoid serving hard time. Part of me believes that the federal prosecutors are engaged in a sort of "witch hunt" against her because she represents the American Elite. I think that they are going after her and are sticking to their guns about her serving jail time because they feel like they failed to imprison the executives at ENRON, WorldCom, etc. Plus, she really is quite a bitch so that would be extra dibs for them. Remember Leona Helmsley? I vaguely recall that her version of serving jail time was to be confined to a country club setting. She ain't never seen the inside of a 6'X4' cell.
On the other hand, there is no doubt in my mind that Ms. Stewart did commit a crime. She probably engaged in insider trading but proving that beyond a reasonable doubt in a court is extremely difficult because all of the talking heads are saying that it comes down to proving who said what or hearsay. However, she did lie to federal investigators and she did try to cover up her mess. To me, it seems like perjury and obstruction of justice just like what the talking heads are saying on tv and radio. But, the question is what is the appropriate form of justice/punishment for such a crime? Part of me thinks that the federal prosecutors are looking for a scapegoat albeit a very famous and rich one in this particular case. I think that they are frustrated by the appearance that select members of the American Elite -- ENRON execs, famous people, billionaires -- aren't being punished hard enough for their crimes. Yet, there is a key difference: Ms. Stewart made an incredibly dumb financial decision to dump her shares of ImClone. That effects her pocketbook and not anyone else's (after all, how many Head-Fi members can afford to make that kind of investment like she did when she decided to buy shares of her friend's stock?).
In the end, I just can't fathom not seeing Ms. Stewart finding a way to negotiate a terms of settlement that would preclude serving one second of hard time. C'mon! She has the money, the high powered legal defense team (reminiscent of OJ Simpson), and the connections with the rich and powerful. I think that she will do everything in her power to make an admission of guilt that would not involve serving in a jail cell. So, in a way, she kind of gets away with that. But we all knew that was going to happen.