- Dec 5, 2007
Even the medical field gets a better pass than fifty percent.
"This drug may work only ten percent of the time but using this drug enhances your survival rate from zero percent to ten percent."
You absolutely gotta be kidding me... this is elementary-school logic..
You're chance from randomly guessing STARTS at 50%, whereas in your example, the rate starts at 0%.
A better analogy would be such -
"in your situation, the chances of your kid being born with blue eyes is 50%"
"if you buy this untested drug for a lot of money, then the chances of your kid being born with blue eyes is still 50%"
"on the bright side, there will be no adverse side-effects"
"I'm sorry, you didn't hear what you just heard because if you don't hear it often enough to suit my statistical purposes, I'm here to tell you, that you didn't hear what you heard."
"inside one of these 2 boxes, there is a slip of paper. If you are psychic like you claim you are, then you can tell me which one has the slip of paper." (psychic guesses correctly 5 out of 10 times)
"see, I told you i'm psychic. just because I can't choose correctly all the time, doesn't mean I'm not psychic some of the time"