Bag and tag from Japan doesn't mean much - I've had Korean and Indian in those bags. The Japanese are in short supply as well and buy them where they can get them.
I was going to say that I haven't seen green in these particular transistor sets, so I'd vote for the bottom grouping as being genuine. That said, Toshiba definitely used green, but it was usually in conjunction with lower ouput versions of the same transistors ("O" vs. "Y" type, for instance).
It helps to see the backs, too. Toshiba was much more quality-conscious with the plastic/metal interface. Many of the Chinese, Korean, and Indian transistors have some pretty messy backs where the plastic is smudged over, etc. - another reason the bottom group look more genuine to me.
I've also never seen the 2SC2238 with the straight "T", but they are known to be genuine that way with the 2SA968's. Also, the round indentation with letters and numbers are known to be used on the genuine 2SA968's.
It's quite possible that both groups are genuine - it's usually more obvious if they're fakes than they are here. Anyway, that's about the extent of my experience with them. MCM is easily your best chance of getting the real thing, too.