Originally Posted by Edwood
Probably the #1 reason both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will fail. DVD is still pretty new on the media scene. VHS is finally dead.
Granted, there will be a push for more HDTV's in the living room in a year, since all terrestrial broadcast will all switch to digital. But since most people have cable, I'm guessing most people won't notice or care.
But if audio is any indicator, the vast majority of people don't care about quality. They care about cost and convenience.
For audio, we're in the minority here.
As are those that love HD video.
Most people prefer Bose and iBud earphones, but I prefer something better.
Most people prefer DVD's, but I prefer something better.
I do not believe BluRay will fail. As PS3 sales go up, so will the sale of BD movies. We have already seen a huge percentage increase of sales of BDs since Christmas.
I do agree with a lot of your points as related to the success of DVD because it could work with any TV and get a better picture. However, HDTV sales have been booming over the last few years, especially with LCDs. So, there is not only a push for HDTVs, there is a successful
push for HDTVs in people's homes.
Keep in mind, that BluRay or HD DVDs do not have to sell as many units as DVD to be successful. They just need a big enough market share to encourage the studios to release movies in the format. Since the studios want the added DRM features, they should continue to support the new mediums into the future.
The comparison to audio is not really a fair one. Many people use mp3s/bose for background music. They jog, clean house, work, do the bills, etc... with music on. Movies usually require more focus. This could mean that people will be more likely to want quality from that experience. VHS was just fine (mp3-like performance). The main selling point for DVD was picture quality and surround sound. It took a while to get off the ground, but it did eventually. I am not saying that everyone will be replacing evey disc in their collections. But when people rent, or buy something new, I believe that they will go with the quality if it is available and they already own a PS3.
Finally, these technologies are still in the early-adopter phase. As the prices drop, and they will, more people will want them for their homes. Also, BD, as I have mentioned, has the PS3 and as they release more games that people want, more of them will be sold. The key will be having enough units in the stores over next Christmas, which is where Sony failed on the initial release.