The Grado HF2--It's For Real

[charliex]

Originally Posted by jfourc

What do you guys think? I ordered the HF-2's about a month ago, but now I'm thinking about getting a new TV. I have a HD650 setup that I like so now I'm wondering if I should cancel my order or if the HF-2's are worth the cash... Cancel or keep my order?

Get the TV - you can always get the HF-2s here on Head-Fi down the road for the price of a good 50 inch or so flat screen.

[tenzip]

Originally Posted by C38368

Not sure yet, really. I'm leaning towards the reproduction "model of 1918" 1911 that Colt is currently producing, but that's more of a "because it's sexy and I can't afford a real one" thing more than anything else. The practical half of my brain keeps telling me to look for something a bit more... modern. Or at least updated.

A fine firearm. I remember the first time I shot one in .45, it was out the back door of my Dad's hunting partner's walk-out basement. Scratch one crow, but my 10 year old hand/wrist strength wasn't up to the recoil, and I damn near dropped it. I'd only shot .22 before that, and shot target-style, with one hand.

[C38368]

Originally Posted by tenzip

A fine firearm. I remember the first time I shot one in .45, it was out the back door of my Dad's hunting partner's walk-out basement. Scratch one crow, but my 10 year old hand/wrist strength wasn't up to the recoil, and I damn near dropped it. I'd only shot .22 before that, and shot target-style, with one hand.

At least you hit the crow! (Well, assuming that's what you meant to hit, at any rate.) I'm planning to join a friend at a local range this weekend, one with a rental armoury. Hopefully I'll get a chance to shoot a full size .45 auto then (which will be a first for me) before stumping up for one. It's bad enough that I do that with headphones!
I suppose this particular offering isn't that unreasonable... and it'd look bloody good with the rest of the... stuff I have a habit of collecting.

@ grawk~ So Head-Fi's gonna be safe for another... 65 years or so?

[wakeride74]

I don't know where you guys are finding 1911's and decent 50" displays for $450 but please share!

[dan1son]

Originally Posted by wakeride74

I don't know where you guys are finding 1911's and decent 50" displays for $450 but please share!

Maybe he's assuming a 125% price increase like the HF-1s. New for $200, sell in the $450 range. That'd make the HF-2s over a grand .

Somehow I'm doubting the same thing will happen...

[jfourc]

Thanks for all the input everyone. Since I've already waited this long, I'm going to keep my order for the HF-2, and save up some more cash and buy the TV later.

Originally Posted by wakeride74

I don't know where you guys are finding 1911's and decent 50" displays for $450 but please share!

Drooolll... you have the Panasonic HT screen. The TV I'm looking to buy is the S1 series.

[C38368]

Originally Posted by wakeride74

I don't know where you guys are finding 1911's and decent 50" displays for $450 but please share!

Well, I can't speak for the TV, but I just blew up the part of the budget I had for a 1911. How's that sound?

[tenzip]

It may not buy a decent 50" display, and it sure as shootin' won't buy a 1911, but $450 (or a bit more) will buy a used 720p front projector, then you can have a 100" screen!

[roy_jones]

Originally Posted by dan1son

Maybe he's assuming a 125% price increase like the HF-1s. New for $200, sell in the $450 range. That'd make the HF-2s over a grand .

Somehow I'm doubting the same thing will happen...

I was convinced, before the HF-2 was revealed, that John Grado was not going to allow what happened with the HF-1's on the used market to occur again.

I could be completely wrong on this, but I think when the HF-1 was released, there was supposed to be a set number of headphones that would be built. It ended up exceeding that amount once the incredible demand was realized, but originally I believe it was supposed to be limited to the first 250 or so.

I could be wrong, but I think that the headphones had already been produced (excluding the ones that got added onto the initial run). Meaning that once the allotted number of buyers had been reached, the stock would be exhausted and the HF-1 would no longer be available.

Both of these factors have been significant in the increase in the value of the HF-1 in the used market over time. Those cans were, comparatively, more exclusive.

The HF-2 seems to be guided by a much different marketing strategy. There is no upper limit on how many headphones can be produced. We're already said to be past the 500 mark, which exceeds the total number of HF-1's that were made, and other than 25 people, no one has even received their headphone yet.

Since the headphones are being made significantly later than the introduction of the sale announcement and there isn't a set number available before the model will be sold out, there isn't the same exclusivity.

As a result, I find it unlikely that there will be the type of appreciation in the used market with the HF-2 as there was with the HF-1. Anyone who was around when the HF-1 was released would probably realize that John Grado was very unlikely to allow such a thing to happen again.

But, as a businessman, you can really drum up a lot of hype and interest in a subsequent HF model if you build on what happened after the release of the HF-1 in your release of the HF-2.

I wonder if the sales #'s of the HF-2's would be as high as they currently are if posters hadn't observed what happened with the HF-1 and their price increase over time in the used market. That's why I expect JG would capitalize on that expectation and produce as many HF-2's as possible before ending production.

Personally, while I believe they could appreciate, I would be shocked if they appreciated anywhere near the amount that the HF-1's have, proportionately.

[DoYouRight]

mmm projector the size of my whole wall... sexy...

[Uncle Erik]

The HF-2 will appreciate, just watch. If the initial group is as happy with them as they seem to be, there won't be many on the used market. New members are always coming in, so there will be plenty of buyers who will miss buying them new.

Wakeride - there are some pretty fair prices going on the Springfield GI 1911s. IIRC, I paid under $500 for one earlier this year. Nothing fancy, but it's a solid gun.

[pfillion]

Originally Posted by pearljam5000

are they good mostly with rock like most Grado cans?

I will answer to your question next week.

[UglyJoe]

@Roy Jones:

I don't know. I expect the HF-2 sales to be in the 650-700 range, and no more than 1000. For one thing, TTVJ isn't going to want that kind of timeframe on this can. My suspicion is again that Todd isn't making much, if any, profit off of these cans, and he has a lot of other things on his plate than to deal with a custom headphone go-between-guy over the next 6 months. I'd agree with others that have guessed the final cutoff date being late September, early October. Even if 1500 get made, with the reputation that this phone seems to be garnering, there are going to be a lot of members down the line looking to purchase them. Remember, the final number isn't what's going to bring up the price of the can... it's the number of people who aren't happy with them. Suppose 1000 get sold, and suppose that the positive trend stays the same as now, roughly 80-85%. People that are happy with the can are going to be loathe to let them go, even to upgrade to something different/better. The high likelihood of never getting another one would keep them from selling. So let's give a rough estimate of 1000 cans, of which 200 or so are sold. Most of those buyers are also going to be happy with the can, and after a couple of rounds of used sales, we are probably only talking about 20-40 headphones on a FS pool at any given time in the next 4 years. I think this is a rather large over-estimation, and would actually expect to see more like 10 on the market at a normal time. This # of available cans and the potentially high demand for them could easily lead to a large mark-up in price.

Now, this assumes that A.) the headphones are as "good" to a larger population as they are in the smaller sample that is out there now and B.) there aren't a bunch of jackasses who are buying them just to resell them. If there are 500 buyers who are actually interested and want the phones, and 500 more that are using them as a portfolio booster with the intent of jacking up the price and reselling them, then appreciation might stay on the downside for a long time, although I think eventually scarcity will drive the market on them up.

All I know is I have no intention of selling mine when I finally get them unless I really don't like them. In which case I'll probably have them recabled by APS and try them for a longer period of time before giving up on them. I don't think this is going to be the case, though.

EDIT: Another thing to think about is that this really might be last "special edition" phone for head-fi that Grado makes. I can't see them following their current trend... a next step up ($900-$1000 can) would compete directly with the GS1000 and PS-1000. I don't see this happening. Call me cynical, but the market for those expensive flagships is small... they don't want to cut into it with a can that is by all accounts not a money-maker (at least not as MUCH of a money-maker) for them. Maybe they go the other way and throw out some different design than the hybrid cups of the HF-1 and 2, maybe they drop the price on an HF-3 back to $200-$250 and use something else that's been rattling around in John's head but doesn't fit into the Grado line-up, but I don't expect to see another $400+ HF can from Grado, if we see any other HF can out there at all.

Also, I don't see why John would have a problem with the HF-2's appreciating at a ridiculous rate. Suppose something unworldy happens and the cans start going used for $1000-$1200. What is that to him. If anything it would make him proud I think, and raise that Grado mystique. People would always be talking about the mythical and rare HF-2, which is never a bad thing for a company. Just imagine, 5 years from now, a product coming out from Grado with a tag line "the closest thing in the current line-up approaching the sound signature of the rare and prized limited edition HF-2 headphone, produced back in 2009." That would sell a lot of that headphone for Grado. I don't understand why John would be upset if people really begin to covet this headphone a few years down the road.

[roy_jones]

UglyJoe

You might be right- it's very hard to predict.

There are so many factors at work. A lot depends on how the headphone is perceived critically, as you said. If a consensus builds that it is better than the RS-1, then there is potential headroom for appreciation on a quality basis.

With the HF-1, part of it's appeal was that it performed above it's original price, but perhaps even more significant was that there wasn't another Grado that was voiced in quite the same way. There were people that don't generally like the Grado house sound that liked the HF-1. Specifically, Grado's are known for having 'hot' treble.

The HF-1 retained much of the positive sound signature that Grado's are uniquely known for, but tamed down the treble and added a slight mid-bass hump that is pleasant and gives the cans a groovy flavor that is lacking in it's competitors (SR225, 325i).

So I could see the HF-2 appreciating significantly if it were to capture a similar niche. It's quite possible that it will, based on some of the early accounts.

Most of my skepticism comes from more purely economic forces. For example, what stopped the HF-1's from appreciating to $1000?

One of the reasons I think they settled where they did is because the RS-1 is available on the used market for $500. The RS-2 is an ugly duckling in the Grado lineup and the HF-1 probably performs somewhere in the same range. If you get passed the price of a used RS-2, you run up against a natural price barrier as a result of the superiority of the RS-1. Despite what some people here have said, the RS-1 is a technically superior headphone.

Now, if the HF-2 is a significantly better headphone than the RS-1, it's possible price plateau is more open ended because it doesn't naturally run up against a competitor that performs better at a given price. The GS-1000 is an exceptional headphone in the Grado lineup. It doesn't really offer that type of comparative option.

What's very interesting, on some level, is that I've read some early reviews that have suggested that the HF-2 is in some ways better than the PS-1000. So if you're looking at an optimistic scenario for price appreciation with the HF-2, certainly that is a good sign.

Personally, I think John Grado is sensitive to this, and with the experience of what happened with the HF-1, I suspect he would be hesitant to create a limited edition headphone that could potentially disrupt his retail sale model. He doesn't capture any of the increased price that the headphones attain on the used market. I think you may underestimate how important it would be in JG's eyes to avoid distorting the value of his existing lineup.

[SemiAudiophile]

i don't think the motive was to make huge amounts of profit with the HF-2. like the HF-1, the HF-2 was created as a special headphone to support the head-fi community. if an HF-3 ever comes out, i suspect it would be the last because i can't see how you could take it any further either.

i can see the HF-2 selling from $700-900, between the RS1 and GS1000. slightly better than RS1's but not quite as good as GS1000. that's how much i would sell a "baby PS1000".